Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 01/07, 22:00
Independiente del Valle vs Manta FC
Expected goals: 2.77 (Independiente del Valle 2.25 · Manta FC 0.52). The model gives 77% home, 17% draw, 7% away. Under 3 goals (56%) and not both to score (53%). Most likely score: 2-0.
77%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Independiente del Valle 1612 · Manta FC 1470
| Independiente del Valle | Draw | Manta FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 76% | 18% | 6% |
| Market | 77% | 16% | 7% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.77 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.77Independiente del Valle 2.25 · Manta FC 0.52
Over / Under 3Under 3 · 56%
BTTSNo · 53%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Independiente del Valle (rating 1612 vs 1470).
- H2H favours Independiente del Valle: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Independiente del Valle | Manta FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.4 / 1.2 | 1 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.3 | 0.2 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/40/0% | 10/30/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4.1 / 6.6 | 2.5 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0.1 | 4 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Independiente del Valle 3–2–1 Manta FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/03/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Manta FC | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Independiente del Valle |
| 10/08/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Manta FC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Independiente del Valle |
| 20/04/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Independiente del Valle | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Manta FC |
| 19/10/21 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Independiente del Valle | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Manta FC |
| 03/05/21 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Manta FC | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Independiente del Valle |
| 14/12/14 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Independiente del Valle | 4-0 HT 3-0 | Manta FC |
Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 16 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 32 | 18 | 37 |
| 2 | Deportivo Cuenca | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 17 | 27 |
| 3 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 26 | 14 | 26 |
| 4 | Barcelona Guayaquil | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 13 | 26 |
| 5 | SD Aucas | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 19 | 16 | 26 |
| 6 | LDU Quito | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 13 | 24 |
| 7 | Orense | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 19 | 22 |
| 8 | Emelec | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 16 | 22 |
| 9 | Tecnico Universitario | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 17 | 16 | 20 |
| 10 | Macara | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 18 | 20 |
| 11 | Guayaquil City | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 19 | 19 |
| 12 | Mushuc Runa | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 19 | 21 | 18 |
| 13 | Leones FC | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 18 | 17 |
| 14 | Club Atletico Libertad | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 16 | 22 | 17 |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 16 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 7 | 19 | 12 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Independiente del Valle | Manta FC |
|---|---|---|
| Club Atletico Libertad | 2-3 L | 2-1 W |
| Macara | 3-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 3-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Barcelona Guayaquil | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 1 L | 2 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Independiente del Valle (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Independiente del Valle
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05 | Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-0 | 4-2 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 28/05 | Rosario Central Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 23/05 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 2-3 | 12 | 6 | L |
| 20/05 | Libertad Asuncion Copa Libertadores |
2-1 | 4-1 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 16/05 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 14/05 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador Super Cup |
2-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 8 | W |
| 10/05 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 06/05 | UCV Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 0-2 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 01/05 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
3-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 29/04 | Libertad Asuncion Copa Libertadores |
1-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 5 | W |
Manta FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/05 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 26/05 | SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 22/05 | Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador Cup |
0-0 | 5-3 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 18/05 | Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 11/05 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 03/05 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 27/04 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 22/04 | Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-2 | 0-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 19/04 | Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 11/04 | Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 8 | L |