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Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 01/07, 22:00

Club Atletico Libertad vs Leones FC

Expected goals: 2.39 (Club Atletico Libertad 1.37 · Leones FC 1.02). The model gives 44% home, 29% draw, 27% away. Under 2.25 goals (51%) and both teams to score (51%). Most likely score: 1-1.

44%1
44% 29% 27%
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Club Atletico Libertad 1457 · Leones FC 1495
Club Atletico LibertadDrawLeones FC
Our model44%30%27%
Market44%29%27%
Estimated total (ours) 2.39 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).

Model analysis
Expected goals2.39Club Atletico Libertad 1.37 · Leones FC 1.02
Over / Under 2.25Under 2.25 · 51%
BTTSYes · 51%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

  • Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

Club Atletico LibertadLeones FC
Goals for / against (FT)1.2 / 2.11.3 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)0.4 / 0.50.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)20/60/20%40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)1.3 / 3.11.9 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)3.7 / 0.14.9 / 0.3

Head-to-head (H2H) · Club Atletico Libertad 0–1–0 Leones FC

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DateHomeScoreAway
28/02/26
Ecuador LigaPro Serie A
Leones FC1-1
HT 1-1
Club Atletico Libertad

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 Independiente del Valle 161213 321837
2 Deportivo Cuenca 16835 181727
3 Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 16754 261426
4 Barcelona Guayaquil 16754 181326
5 SD Aucas 16754 191626
6 LDU Quito 15735 161324
7 Orense 15645 211922
8 Emelec 16646 131622
9 Tecnico Universitario 16628 171620
10 Macara 16556 151820
11 Guayaquil City 16547 141919
12 Mushuc Runa 16466 192118
13 Leones FC 16457 151817
14 Club Atletico Libertad 16457 162217
15 Delfin SC 16448 81516
16 Manta FC 163310 71912

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentClub Atletico LibertadLeones FC
Manta FC 1-2 L 3-0 W
Independiente del Valle 3-2 W 1-2 L
Emelec 1-1 D 2-0 W
SD Aucas 3-2 W 0-1 L
Macara 0-3 L 1-1 D
Orense 1-2 L 0-2 L
Record vs common 2 W 1 D 3 L 2 W 1 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Club Atletico Libertad

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
30/05 Manta FC
Ecuador LigaPro Serie A
 1-0 1-2 24 L
23/05 Independiente del Valle
Ecuador LigaPro Serie A
 0-0 3-2 16 W
20/05 LDU Portoviejo
Ecuador Cup
 1-1 3-5 33 L
16/05 Deportivo Cuenca
Ecuador LigaPro Serie A
 0-0 0-1 54 L
10/05 Emelec
Ecuador LigaPro Serie A
 1-1 1-1 14 D
02/05 SD Aucas
Ecuador LigaPro Serie A
 1-0 3-2 44 W
26/04 Macara
Ecuador LigaPro Serie A
 0-2 0-3 52 L
22/04 Guayaquil City
Ecuador LigaPro Serie A
 0-0 0-1 55 L
18/04 Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
Ecuador LigaPro Serie A
 0-0 0-2 22 L
12/04 Orense
Ecuador LigaPro Serie A
 0-1 1-2 34 L

Leones FC

LLWLWLWLWD

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
02/06 Macara
Ecuador LigaPro Serie A
 0-0 1-1 44 D
30/05 Huaquillas FC
Ecuador Cup
 1-0 1-0 27 W
24/05 Tecnico Universitario
Ecuador LigaPro Serie A
 0-1 1-2 14 L
17/05 Mushuc Runa
Ecuador LigaPro Serie A
 2-1 3-1 44 W
09/05 Orense
Ecuador LigaPro Serie A
 0-0 0-2 47 L
04/05 Emelec
Ecuador LigaPro Serie A
 1-0 2-0 36 W
25/04 Independiente del Valle
Ecuador LigaPro Serie A
 1-1 1-2 55 L
22/04 Manta FC
Ecuador LigaPro Serie A
 2-0 3-0 65 W
18/04 SD Aucas
Ecuador LigaPro Serie A
 0-0 0-1 55 L
11/04 Barcelona Guayaquil
Ecuador LigaPro Serie A
 0-1 1-2 25 L