Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 02/07, 02:00

Delfin SC vs Emelec

Expected goals: 1.98 (Delfin SC 0.98 · Emelec 1). The model gives 33% home, 32% draw, 35% away. Under 2 goals (51%) and not both to score (52%). Most likely score: 0-0.

35%2

33% 32% 35%

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Delfin SC 1461 · Emelec 1513

	Delfin SC	Draw	Emelec
Our model	32%	34%	34%
Market	34%	31%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 1.98 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).

Model analysis

Expected goals1.98Delfin SC 0.98 · Emelec 1

Over / Under 2Under 2 · 51%

BTTSNo · 52%

Most likely total1 goals

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 83%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Emelec (rating 1461 vs 1513).
H2H favours Emelec: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Delfin SC	Emelec
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.1	1.6 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.3	0.4 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	10/80/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 2.4	2 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.2	3.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.00

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 21.80

Under 22.00

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.6

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

How Bet365's odds have moved from when the line opened until now. It's market data, not a recommendation.

1X2

1 2.70 → 2.70 – 0%

X 3.00 → 3.00 – 0%

2 2.60 → 2.60 – 0%

Over/Under 2

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Both teams to score

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Delfin SC 1–2–3 Emelec

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/03/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Emelec	1-1 HT 0-0	Delfin SC
01/12/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Delfin SC	0-1 HT 0-0	Emelec
27/10/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Emelec	1-0 HT 0-0	Delfin SC
21/06/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Emelec	2-2 HT 1-1	Delfin SC
22/02/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Delfin SC	2-0 HT 0-0	Emelec
25/08/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Delfin SC	0-1 HT 0-0	Emelec

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	16	12	1	3	32	18	37
2	Deportivo Cuenca	16	8	3	5	18	17	27
3	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	16	7	5	4	26	14	26
4	Barcelona Guayaquil	16	7	5	4	18	13	26
5	SD Aucas	16	7	5	4	19	16	26
6	LDU Quito	15	7	3	5	16	13	24
7	Orense	15	6	4	5	21	19	22
8	Emelec	16	6	4	6	13	16	22
9	Tecnico Universitario	16	6	2	8	17	16	20
10	Macara	16	5	5	6	15	18	20
11	Guayaquil City	16	5	4	7	14	19	19
12	Mushuc Runa	16	4	6	6	19	21	18
13	Leones FC	16	4	5	7	15	18	17
14	Club Atletico Libertad	16	4	5	7	16	22	17
15	Delfin SC	16	4	4	8	8	15	16
16	Manta FC	16	3	3	10	7	19	12

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Delfin SC	Emelec
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	2-2 D	1-0 W
Tecnico Universitario	0-4 L	1-0 W
SD Aucas	0-1 L	0-2 L
LDU Quito	1-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Emelec (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Delfin SC

WDLLWLWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/05	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	2	7	L
25/05	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-2	1	4	L
16/05	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	2-2	1	5	D
13/05	Banos Ciudad de Fuego Ecuador Cup	0-0	2-0	5	3	W
09/05	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	0-4	3	4	L
03/05	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
28/04	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	1	7	L
22/04	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
19/04	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	1	6	D
11/04	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-0	2	7	W

Emelec

LLWWLDDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/06	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
24/05	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	2-0	3	3	W
20/05	Daquilema FC Ecuador Cup	0-0	9-10	6	5	L
18/05	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
10/05	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-1	11	4	D
04/05	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-2	6	6	L
26/04	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	9	2	W
22/04	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	1	5	W
18/04	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-3	2	5	L
13/04	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-2	4	5	L