Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 01/07, 22:00
Macara vs LDU Quito
Expected goals: 2.11 (Macara 0.86 · LDU Quito 1.26). The model gives 25% home, 30% draw, 45% away. Under 2.25 goals (52%) and not both to score (51%). Most likely score: 1-1.
45%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Macara 1508 · LDU Quito 1520
| Macara | Draw | LDU Quito | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 24% | 32% | 44% |
| Market | 26% | 28% | 46% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.11 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.11Macara 0.86 · LDU Quito 1.26
Over / Under 2.25Under 2.25 · 52%
BTTSNo · 51%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 78%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours LDU Quito: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Macara | LDU Quito | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 1 | 1.2 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.5 | 0.2 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/60/30% | 10/70/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.7 / 6.5 | 1.9 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0.1 | 4.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Macara 1–1–4 LDU Quito
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/03/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | LDU Quito | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Macara |
| 30/08/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | LDU Quito | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Macara |
| 10/05/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Macara | 0-1 HT 0-1 | LDU Quito |
| 04/08/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Macara | 0-4 HT 0-3 | LDU Quito |
| 05/03/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | LDU Quito | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Macara |
| 22/10/22 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Macara | 0-5 HT 0-2 | LDU Quito |
Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 16 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 32 | 18 | 37 |
| 2 | Deportivo Cuenca | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 17 | 27 |
| 3 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 26 | 14 | 26 |
| 4 | Barcelona Guayaquil | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 13 | 26 |
| 5 | SD Aucas | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 19 | 16 | 26 |
| 6 | LDU Quito | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 13 | 24 |
| 7 | Orense | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 19 | 22 |
| 8 | Emelec | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 16 | 22 |
| 9 | Tecnico Universitario | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 17 | 16 | 20 |
| 10 | Macara | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 18 | 20 |
| 11 | Guayaquil City | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 19 | 19 |
| 12 | Mushuc Runa | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 19 | 21 | 18 |
| 13 | Leones FC | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 18 | 17 |
| 14 | Club Atletico Libertad | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 16 | 22 | 17 |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 16 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 7 | 19 | 12 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Macara
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/06 | CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 02/06 | Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 29/05 | America de Cali Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 24/05 | Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 22/05 | Alianza Atletico Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 16/05 | Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 11/05 | Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 07/05 | CA Tigre Copa Sudamericana |
1-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 7 | D |
| 03/05 | Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 1-2 | 11 | 6 | L |
| 01/05 | Alianza Atletico Copa Sudamericana |
2-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 5 | W |
LDU Quito
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/05 | Always Ready Copa Libertadores |
1-2 | 3-2 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 24/05 | Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 21/05 | Lanus Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 15/05 | Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 2-1 | 13 | 8 | W |
| 12/05 | Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 08/05 | Mirassol Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 29/04 | Lanus Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 26/04 | Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 23/04 | SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |