Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 01/07, 22:00
Barcelona Guayaquil vs Deportivo Cuenca
Expected goals: 2.54 (Barcelona Guayaquil 1.82 · Deportivo Cuenca 0.72). The model gives 63% home, 24% draw, 13% away. Over 2.25 goals (54%) and not both to score (51%). Most likely score: 1-0.
63%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Barcelona Guayaquil 1509 · Deportivo Cuenca 1501
| Barcelona Guayaquil | Draw | Deportivo Cuenca | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 24% | 13% |
| Market | 63% | 24% | 13% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.54 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.54Barcelona Guayaquil 1.82 · Deportivo Cuenca 0.72
Over / Under 2.25Over 2.25 · 54%
BTTSNo · 51%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 76%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Barcelona Guayaquil: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Barcelona Guayaquil | Deportivo Cuenca | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.4 | 1.5 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.6 | 0.2 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/20/50% | 0/80/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 3.7 | 1.1 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.9 / 0.6 | 4.6 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Barcelona Guayaquil 3–1–2 Deportivo Cuenca
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/03/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Deportivo Cuenca | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Barcelona Guayaquil |
| 21/09/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Deportivo Cuenca | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Barcelona Guayaquil |
| 24/05/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Barcelona Guayaquil | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Deportivo Cuenca |
| 22/09/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Deportivo Cuenca | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Barcelona Guayaquil |
| 07/04/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Barcelona Guayaquil | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Deportivo Cuenca |
| 25/09/23 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Deportivo Cuenca | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Barcelona Guayaquil |
Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 16 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 32 | 18 | 37 |
| 2 | Deportivo Cuenca | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 17 | 27 |
| 3 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 26 | 14 | 26 |
| 4 | Barcelona Guayaquil | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 13 | 26 |
| 5 | SD Aucas | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 19 | 16 | 26 |
| 6 | LDU Quito | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 13 | 24 |
| 7 | Orense | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 19 | 22 |
| 8 | Emelec | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 16 | 22 |
| 9 | Tecnico Universitario | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 17 | 16 | 20 |
| 10 | Macara | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 18 | 20 |
| 11 | Guayaquil City | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 19 | 19 |
| 12 | Mushuc Runa | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 19 | 21 | 18 |
| 13 | Leones FC | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 18 | 17 |
| 14 | Club Atletico Libertad | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 16 | 22 | 17 |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 16 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 7 | 19 | 12 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Barcelona Guayaquil | Deportivo Cuenca |
|---|---|---|
| Tecnico Universitario | 0-1 L | 2-1 W |
| Delfin SC | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 1 L | 2 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Deportivo Cuenca (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Barcelona Guayaquil
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/06 | Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 29/05 | Cruzeiro Copa Libertadores |
0-1 | 0-4 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 25/05 | Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 22/05 | Universidad Catolica Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 12/05 | FC Insutec Ecuador Cup |
1-0 | 4-2 | – | – | W |
| 10/05 | Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 06/05 | Boca Juniors Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 11 | W |
| 03/05 | Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 30/04 | Universidad Catolica Copa Libertadores |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
Deportivo Cuenca
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/06 | CD La Union Ecuador Cup |
0-0 | 7-8 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 31/05 | Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 7 | W |
| 27/05 | Santos Copa Sudamericana |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 24/05 | LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 20/05 | Deportivo Recoleta Copa Sudamericana |
1-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 16/05 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 09/05 | Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 06/05 | San Lorenzo Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 02/05 | Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 29/04 | Deportivo Recoleta Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |