Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 01/07, 22:00
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador vs Mushuc Runa
Expected goals: 2.44 (Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 1.67 · Mushuc Runa 0.77). The model gives 58% home, 25% draw, 17% away. Under 2.5 goals (52%) and both teams to score (50%). Most likely score: 1-0.
58%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 1514 · Mushuc Runa 1462
| Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | Draw | Mushuc Runa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 26% | 16% |
| Market | 59% | 23% | 17% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.44 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.44Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 1.67 · Mushuc Runa 0.77
Over / Under 2.5Under 2.5 · 52%
BTTSYes · 50%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 70%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (rating 1514 vs 1462).
- H2H favours Universidad Catolica del Ecuador: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | Mushuc Runa | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.4 | 1.1 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 1 | 0.7 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/70/30% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 5 | 2 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0.5 | 5.8 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 2–3–1 Mushuc Runa
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/03/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Mushuc Runa | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador |
| 05/07/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Mushuc Runa | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador |
| 09/03/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Mushuc Runa |
| 31/08/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 5-1 HT 2-1 | Mushuc Runa |
| 22/05/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Mushuc Runa | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador |
| 26/11/23 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Mushuc Runa | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador |
Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 16 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 32 | 18 | 37 |
| 2 | Deportivo Cuenca | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 17 | 27 |
| 3 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 26 | 14 | 26 |
| 4 | Barcelona Guayaquil | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 13 | 26 |
| 5 | SD Aucas | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 19 | 16 | 26 |
| 6 | LDU Quito | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 13 | 24 |
| 7 | Orense | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 19 | 22 |
| 8 | Emelec | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 16 | 22 |
| 9 | Tecnico Universitario | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 17 | 16 | 20 |
| 10 | Macara | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 18 | 20 |
| 11 | Guayaquil City | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 19 | 19 |
| 12 | Mushuc Runa | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 19 | 21 | 18 |
| 13 | Leones FC | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 18 | 17 |
| 14 | Club Atletico Libertad | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 16 | 22 | 17 |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 16 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 7 | 19 | 12 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | Mushuc Runa |
|---|---|---|
| Delfin SC | 2-2 D | 0-1 L |
| SD Aucas | 1-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Manta FC | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 2 L | 1 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Mushuc Runa (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/06 | Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 29/05 | El Nacional Ecuador Cup |
1-1 | 4-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 23/05 | Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 16/05 | Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 14/05 | Independiente del Valle Ecuador Super Cup |
0-2 | 0-3 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 09/05 | SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 01/05 | Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-3 | 2-3 | 11 | 7 | L |
| 27/04 | Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 24/04 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 18/04 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
Mushuc Runa
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/06 | Gualaceo SC Ecuador Cup |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 31/05 | SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 9 | D |
| 23/05 | Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-1 | 2-2 | 10 | 5 | D |
| 17/05 | Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 12/05 | LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-3 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 03/05 | Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 25/04 | Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-1 | 4-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 23/04 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 18/04 | Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 11 | W |
| 11/04 | Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 8 | W |