Football · Australia NPL Queensland Women · 04/07, 10:30
Gold Coast Knights (W) vs Capalaba (W)
Expected goals: 3.82 (Gold Coast Knights (W) 2.91 · Capalaba (W) 0.91). The model gives 85% home, 10% draw, 5% away. Under 4.25 goals (56%) and both teams to score (55%). Most likely score: 2-0.
85%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gold Coast Knights (W) 1575 · Capalaba (W) 1448
| Gold Coast Knights (W) | Draw | Capalaba (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 77% | 14% | 8% |
| Market | 92% | 6% | 3% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.82 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.82Gold Coast Knights (W) 2.91 · Capalaba (W) 0.91
Over / Under 4.25Under 4.25 · 56%
BTTSYes · 55%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gold Coast Knights (W) (rating 1575 vs 1448).
- H2H favours Gold Coast Knights (W): 4-0-0.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Gold Coast Knights (W) | Capalaba (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 0.7 | 1.3 / 2.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.5 | 1.1 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.5 / 7.1 | 0.5 / 2.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1 / 0 | 1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Gold Coast Knights (W) 4–0–0 Capalaba (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06/26 Australia NPL Queensland Women | Capalaba (W) | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Gold Coast Knights (W) |
| 20/02/26 Australia NPL Queensland Women | Capalaba (W) | 1-4 HT 1-1 | Gold Coast Knights (W) |
| 31/08/24 Australia Queensland Premier League Women | Gold Coast Knights (W) | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Capalaba (W) |
| 07/07/24 Australia Queensland Premier League Women | Capalaba (W) | 1-3 HT 1-0 | Gold Coast Knights (W) |
Standings · Australia NPL Queensland Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) | 19 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 37 | 15 | 43 |
| 2 | Brisbane City (W) | 18 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 47 | 12 | 39 |
| 3 | Gold Coast Knights (W) | 17 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 40 | 14 | 39 |
| 4 | Lions FC (W) | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 40 | 19 | 33 |
| 5 | Brisbane Olympic FC (W) | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 27 | 21 | 29 |
| 6 | Gold Coast United (W) | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 28 | 24 |
| 7 | FQ QAS Women | 20 | 6 | 1 | 13 | 39 | 58 | 19 |
| 8 | Capalaba (W) | 19 | 6 | 1 | 12 | 22 | 41 | 19 |
| 9 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W) | 19 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 21 | 31 | 17 |
| 10 | Souths United NPL (W) | 19 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 14 | 68 | 1 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Gold Coast Knights (W) | Capalaba (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Lions FC (W) | 2-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W) | 1-1 D | 1-3 L |
| Brisbane Olympic FC (W) | 1-1 D | 1-4 L |
| FQ QAS Women | 4-3 W | 3-0 W |
| Gold Coast United (W) | 5-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) | 0-1 L | 0-3 L |
| Brisbane City (W) | 0-0 D | 0-3 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 3 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Gold Coast Knights (W) (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gold Coast Knights (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Lions FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 27/06 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 2 | D |
| 24/06 | Brisbane Olympic FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 0 | D |
| 20/06 | Capalaba (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
2-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 06/06 | FQ QAS Women Australia NPL Queensland Women |
3-1 | 4-3 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 12/05 | Gold Coast United (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
2-0 | 5-0 | 11 | 1 | W |
| 08/05 | Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 12/04 | Brisbane City (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | D |
| 31/03 | Gold Coast United (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 28/03 | FQ QAS Women Australia NPL Queensland Women |
1-1 | 4-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
Capalaba (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | FQ QAS Women Australia NPL Queensland Women |
3-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 23/06 | Lions FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 20/06 | Gold Coast Knights (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 06/06 | Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-1 | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 03/06 | Brisbane Olympic FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
1-1 | 1-4 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 23/05 | FQ QAS Women Australia NPL Queensland Women |
4-0 | 4-3 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Gold Coast United (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 03/05 | Souths United NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 0 | W |
| 26/04 | Brisbane City (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 12/04 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
1-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | L |