Prediction: Moreton City Excelsior (W) vs North Lakes United (W)
Expected goals: 3.92 (Moreton City Excelsior (W) 0.96 · North Lakes United (W) 2.96). The model gives 7% home, 12% draw, 82% away. Under 4.25 goals (56%) and both teams to score (55%). Most likely score: 0-2.
On recent form, Moreton City Excelsior (W) is 1-4-5 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and North Lakes United (W) 9-0-1 over its own. In their only recent head-to-head meeting the record reads 0 wins for Moreton City Excelsior (W) and 1 for North Lakes United (W).
| Moreton City Excelsior (W) | Draw | North Lakes United (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 9% | 14% | 77% |
| Market | 5% | 9% | 85% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours North Lakes United (W) (rating 1443 vs 1615).
- High corners: 13.7 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Moreton City Excelsior (W) | North Lakes United (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 2.1 | 4.4 / 0.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 1 | 1.7 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 60/30/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 4.4 | 3.8 / 9.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.3 / 0.1 | 1.5 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Moreton City Excelsior (W) 0–0–1 North Lakes United (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/26 Australia Queensland Premier League Women | North Lakes United (W) | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) |
Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caboolture FC (W) | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 31 | 10 | 26 |
| 2 | North Lakes United (W) | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 32 | 6 | 25 |
| 3 | The Gap NPL (W) | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 28 | 28 | 16 |
| 4 | Palm Beach SC (W) | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 18 | 15 |
| 5 | Logan Lightning (W) | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 28 | 15 |
| 6 | Virginia United SC (W) | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 18 | 14 |
| 7 | Mitchelton FC (W) | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 20 | 12 |
| 8 | Peninsula Power (W) | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 31 | 11 |
| 9 | Grange Thistle (W) | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 24 | 8 |
| 10 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 24 | 7 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Moreton City Excelsior (W) | North Lakes United (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Logan Lightning (W) | 2-3 L | 6-0 W |
| Palm Beach SC (W) | 1-1 D | 2-0 W |
| The Gap NPL (W) | 2-3 L | 5-2 W |
| Caboolture FC (W) | 0-3 L | 3-0 W |
| Mitchelton FC (W) | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Virginia United SC (W) | 2-2 D | 3-0 W |
| Peninsula Power (W) | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 4 D 3 L | 6 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: North Lakes United (W) (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Moreton City Excelsior (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Logan Lightning (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
2-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 13/06 | Palm Beach SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 31/05 | The Gap NPL (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-3 | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 23/05 | Caboolture FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 0-3 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 10/05 | Mitchelton FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 02/05 | Virginia United SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 26/04 | Grange Thistle (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 17/04 | Logan Lightning (W) Australia Queensland Pro Series Women |
1-1 | 1-2 | 10 | 2 | L |
| 10/04 | Peninsula Power (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 1 | D |
| 29/03 | North Lakes United (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-2 | 0-4 | 4 | 1 | L |
North Lakes United (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Virginia United SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
2-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 09/06 | Peninsula Power (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 13 | 2 | L |
| 05/06 | Logan Lightning (W) Australia Queensland Pro Series Women |
3-0 | 6-0 | – | – | W |
| 24/05 | Mitchelton FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 15/05 | Mitchelton FC (W) Australia Queensland Pro Series Women |
1-1 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 09/05 | Logan Lightning (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
3-0 | 9-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 03/05 | Palm Beach SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 25/04 | The Gap NPL (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 5-2 | – | – | W |
| 17/04 | Peninsula Power (W) Australia Queensland Pro Series Women |
5-1 | 11-1 | – | – | W |
| 11/04 | Caboolture FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Moreton City Excelsior (W) vs North Lakes United (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an North Lakes United (W) win (82%). Probabilities: Moreton City Excelsior (W) 7%, draw 12%, North Lakes United (W) 82%.
How many goals are expected in Moreton City Excelsior (W) vs North Lakes United (W)?
The model expects 3.92 goals (Moreton City Excelsior (W) 0.96 · North Lakes United (W) 2.96), with a 56% chance of under 4.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Moreton City Excelsior (W) vs North Lakes United (W)?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.