Football · Finland Ykkonen · 02/07, 18:00

FC Jazz vs KPV

Expected goals: 3.25 (FC Jazz 2.23 · KPV 1.02). The model gives 64% home, 20% draw, 15% away. Under 3.5 goals (53%) and both teams to score (55%). Most likely score: 2-1.

64%1

64% 20% 15%

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Jazz 1520 · KPV 1404

	FC Jazz	Draw	KPV
Our model	64%	21%	15%
Market	64%	20%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 3.25 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).

Model analysis

Expected goals3.25FC Jazz 2.23 · KPV 1.02

Over / Under 3.5Under 3.5 · 53%

BTTSYes · 55%

Most likely total3 goals

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Jazz (rating 1520 vs 1404).
H2H favours KPV: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Jazz	KPV
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1	1.2 / 3.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.3	0.4 / 1.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.9	1.6 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.2	2.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.40

X4.50

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)2.00

2 (+1.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.80

Under 3.52.00

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3.5

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

How Bet365's odds have moved from when the line opened until now. It's market data, not a recommendation.

1X2

1 1.40 → 1.40 – 0%

X 4.50 → 4.50 – 0%

2 5.75 → 5.75 – 0%

Over/Under 3.5

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Both teams to score

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Jazz 1–3–2 KPV

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/04/26 Finland Ykkonen	KPV	0-2 HT 0-1	FC Jazz
23/08/25 Finland Ykkonen	FC Jazz	1-1 HT 0-1	KPV
14/06/25 Finland Ykkonen	KPV	3-1 HT 1-0	FC Jazz
28/09/24 Finland Ykkonen	KPV	2-0 HT 0-0	FC Jazz
24/08/24 Finland Ykkonen	FC Jazz	3-3 HT 1-1	KPV
08/06/24 Finland Ykkonen	KPV	3-3 HT 1-1	FC Jazz

Standings · Finland Ykkonen

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tampere Utd	12	9	1	2	25	6	28
2	JJK	13	7	3	3	35	21	24
3	RoPS	12	6	4	2	24	12	22
4	OLS	13	6	4	3	25	15	22
5	SalPa	12	5	4	3	26	22	19
6	PK Keski-Uusimaa	11	5	3	3	21	13	18
7	VJS Vantaa	11	4	4	3	19	13	16
8	FC Jazz	12	5	2	5	14	19	14
9	FC Inter II	12	3	3	6	22	36	12
10	KUPS Akatemia	12	2	2	8	18	27	8
11	TPV	12	1	4	7	12	23	7
12	KPV	12	1	2	9	10	44	5

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Jazz	KPV
Tampere Utd	0-1 L	0-6 L
FC Inter II	1-1 D	4-2 W
VJS Vantaa	1-1 D	0-5 L
SalPa	1-2 L	0-6 L
OLS	2-1 W	0-4 L
KUPS Akatemia	2-1 W	1-4 L
JJK	0-2 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	1 W 0 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: FC Jazz (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FC Jazz

WLWWWWLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/06	Tampere Utd Finland Ykkonen	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
12/06	FC Inter II Finland Ykkonen	0-0	1-1	7	5	D
06/06	VJS Vantaa Finland Ykkonen	0-0	1-1	5	1	D
28/05	SalPa Finland Ykkonen	0-0	1-2	2	6	L
24/05	OLS Finland Ykkonen	0-1	2-1	3	4	W
16/05	RoPS Finland Ykkonen	0-1	2-1	2	4	W
09/05	KUPS Akatemia Finland Ykkonen	1-0	2-1	1	3	W
02/05	TPV Finland Ykkonen	0-0	2-0	4	1	W
25/04	JJK Finland Ykkonen	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
20/04	KPV Finland Ykkonen	1-0	2-0	6	5	W

KPV

WLLLLLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/06	PK Keski-Uusimaa Finland Ykkonen	0-0	1-3	2	5	L
13/06	JJK Finland Ykkonen	0-2	2-3	4	1	L
05/06	KUPS Akatemia Finland Ykkonen	1-1	1-4	4	4	L
29/05	FC Inter II Finland Ykkonen	1-1	4-2	7	6	W
23/05	VJS Vantaa Finland Ykkonen	0-4	0-5	2	6	L
16/05	Tampere Utd Finland Ykkonen	0-2	0-6	2	0	L
13/05	SJK II Finland Cup	0-0	0-2	3	2	L
09/05	SalPa Finland Ykkonen	0-4	0-6	2	1	L
02/05	OLS Finland Ykkonen	0-1	0-4	5	1	L
29/04	RoPo Finland Cup	2-0	4-0	9	1	W