Football · Latvia Virsliga · 01/07, 17:00
Tukums 2000 vs SK Super Nova
Expected goals: 2.83 (Tukums 2000 1.57 · SK Super Nova 1.26). The model gives 44% home, 27% draw, 30% away. Over 2.5 goals (51%) and both teams to score (55%). Most likely score: 1-1.
44%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tukums 2000 1450 · SK Super Nova 1455
| Tukums 2000 | Draw | SK Super Nova | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 27% | 30% |
| Market | 44% | 26% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.83 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.83Tukums 2000 1.57 · SK Super Nova 1.26
Over / Under 2.5Over 2.5 · 51%
BTTSYes · 55%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours SK Super Nova: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Tukums 2000 | SK Super Nova | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 2.3 | 0.9 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 1.2 | 0.6 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 3.8 | 1.9 / 3.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.3 | 4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tukums 2000 1–3–2 SK Super Nova
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/05/26 Latvia Virsliga | SK Super Nova | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Tukums 2000 |
| 22/03/26 Latvia Virsliga | Tukums 2000 | 1-2 HT 0-2 | SK Super Nova |
| 28/09/25 Latvia Virsliga | Tukums 2000 | 2-1 HT 0-1 | SK Super Nova |
| 06/07/25 Latvia Virsliga | SK Super Nova | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Tukums 2000 |
| 16/05/25 Latvia Virsliga | SK Super Nova | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Tukums 2000 |
| 31/03/25 Latvia Virsliga | Tukums 2000 | 2-2 HT 2-1 | SK Super Nova |
Standings · Latvia Virsliga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RFS | 21 | 18 | 1 | 2 | 53 | 15 | 55 |
| 2 | Riga FC | 21 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 62 | 19 | 52 |
| 3 | FK Auda | 21 | 12 | 3 | 6 | 36 | 25 | 39 |
| 4 | FK Liepaja | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 27 | 31 | 28 |
| 5 | FK Jelgava | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 24 | 35 | 25 |
| 6 | BFC Daugavpils | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 22 | 28 | 24 |
| 7 | SK Super Nova | 20 | 6 | 3 | 11 | 20 | 32 | 21 |
| 8 | Tukums 2000 | 20 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 35 | 39 | 17 |
| 9 | SC Grobinas | 21 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 32 | 17 |
| 10 | Ogre United | 21 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 19 | 54 | 10 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Tukums 2000 | SK Super Nova |
|---|---|---|
| Ogre United | 2-3 L | 3-1 W |
| FK Jelgava | 1-4 L | 1-5 L |
| FK Auda | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| BFC Daugavpils | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| FK Liepaja | 0-3 L | 1-2 L |
| RFS | 1-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Riga FC | 1-3 L | 0-3 L |
| SC Grobinas | 3-3 D | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 5 L | 2 W 1 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: SK Super Nova (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tukums 2000
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | Ogre United Latvia Virsliga |
2-1 | 2-3 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 21/06 | FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga |
0-1 | 1-4 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 17/06 | FK Auda Latvia Virsliga |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 12/06 | BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 30/05 | FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 25/05 | RFS Latvia Virsliga |
0-2 | 1-3 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 20/05 | Riga FC Latvia Virsliga |
1-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 15/05 | SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga |
2-2 | 3-3 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 11/05 | SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 6 | D |
| 07/05 | Ogre United Latvia Virsliga |
2-0 | 6-1 | 3 | 0 | W |
SK Super Nova
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06 | FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga |
1-3 | 1-5 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 21/06 | FK Auda Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 16/06 | BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | D |
| 12/06 | FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 29/05 | RFS Latvia Virsliga |
1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 24/05 | Riga FC Latvia Virsliga |
0-3 | 0-3 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 20/05 | SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 16/05 | Ogre United Latvia Virsliga |
2-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 11/05 | Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 06/05 | FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |