Prediction: Keilor Park (W) vs Melbourne City NPL (W)
Expected goals: 3.82 (Keilor Park (W) 2.91 · Melbourne City NPL (W) 0.91). The model gives 78% home, 14% draw, 8% away. Over 3.75 goals (50%) and both teams to score (55%). Most likely score: 2-0.
Over its last 10 matches, Keilor Park (W) sits at 3-2-5 (W-D-L), while Melbourne City NPL (W) arrives on a 1-1-8 run. In their only recent head-to-head meeting the record reads 0 wins for Keilor Park (W) and 1 for Melbourne City NPL (W).
| Keilor Park (W) | Draw | Melbourne City NPL (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 77% | 14% | 8% |
| Market | 79% | 13% | 8% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Keilor Park (W) (rating 1465 vs 1416).
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Keilor Park (W) | Melbourne City NPL (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.8 | 1.5 / 4.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.6 | 0.5 / 2.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 0/20/80% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 2.9 | 1.9 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.8 / 0 | 1.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Keilor Park (W) 0–0–1 Melbourne City NPL (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 Australia NPL Victoria Women | Melbourne City NPL (W) | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Keilor Park (W) |
Standings · Australia NPL Victoria Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Essendon Royals (W) | 18 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 49 | 19 | 38 |
| 2 | Bulleen Lions (W) | 18 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 47 | 17 | 38 |
| 3 | Box Hill (W) | 18 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 48 | 22 | 38 |
| 4 | South Melbourne (W) | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 40 | 18 | 35 |
| 5 | Avondale FC (W) | 18 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 41 | 20 | 32 |
| 6 | Boroondara Eagles (W) | 17 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 38 | 26 | 31 |
| 7 | Alamein FC (W) | 18 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 23 | 20 | 29 |
| 8 | Melbourne Victory NPL (W) | 18 | 8 | 2 | 8 | 32 | 31 | 26 |
| 9 | Spring Hills FC (W) | 18 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 24 | 28 | 23 |
| 10 | Heidelberg United (W) | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 30 | 36 | 22 |
| 11 | Keilor Park (W) | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 32 | 19 |
| 12 | Preston Lions (W) | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 21 | 33 | 16 |
| 13 | Melbourne City NPL (W) | 18 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 18 | 72 | 7 |
| 14 | Bentleigh Greens (W) | 18 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 14 | 69 | 4 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Keilor Park (W) | Melbourne City NPL (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Avondale FC (W) | 0-2 L | 1-6 L |
| Bulleen Lions (W) | 1-0 W | 0-5 L |
| Alamein FC (W) | 0-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Spring Hills FC (W) | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Boroondara Eagles (W) | 2-5 L | 0-3 L |
| Box Hill (W) | 0-2 L | 1-5 L |
| South Melbourne (W) | 0-0 D | 2-9 L |
| Heidelberg United (W) | 1-2 L | 3-9 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 5 L | 0 W 1 D 7 L |
Better against common opponents: Keilor Park (W) (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Keilor Park (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Melbourne Victory NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 20/06 | Avondale FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 06/06 | Bulleen Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 30/05 | Alamein FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-0 | 0-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 23/05 | Spring Hills FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
2-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 16/05 | Boroondara Eagles (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-2 | 2-5 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 08/05 | Box Hill (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-2 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 02/05 | South Melbourne (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 25/04 | Heidelberg United (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 18/04 | Preston Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | D |
Melbourne City NPL (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Avondale FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-3 | 1-6 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 20/06 | Bulleen Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-1 | 0-5 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 06/06 | Alamein FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 29/05 | Spring Hills FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 24/05 | Boroondara Eagles (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 15/05 | Box Hill (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-2 | 1-5 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 09/05 | South Melbourne (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-7 | 2-9 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 02/05 | Heidelberg United (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-4 | 3-9 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 18/04 | Bentleigh Greens (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-1 | 5-1 | 11 | 5 | W |
| 11/04 | Essendon Royals (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-2 | 1-5 | 6 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Keilor Park (W) vs Melbourne City NPL (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Keilor Park (W) win (78%). Probabilities: Keilor Park (W) 78%, draw 14%, Melbourne City NPL (W) 8%.
How many goals are expected in Keilor Park (W) vs Melbourne City NPL (W)?
The model expects 3.82 goals (Keilor Park (W) 2.91 · Melbourne City NPL (W) 0.91), with a 50% chance of over 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Keilor Park (W) vs Melbourne City NPL (W)?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.