Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 02/07, 18:00

FC Kuressaare vs FC Flora Tallinn

Expected goals: 2.85 (FC Kuressaare 0.82 · FC Flora Tallinn 2.03). The model gives 14% home, 21% draw, 65% away. Under 3 goals (53%) and both teams to score (52%). Most likely score: 0-2.

65%2

14% 21% 65%

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Kuressaare 1433 · FC Flora Tallinn 1599

	FC Kuressaare	Draw	FC Flora Tallinn
Our model	13%	22%	65%
Market	14%	20%	66%

Estimated total (ours) 2.85 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).

Model analysis

Expected goals2.85FC Kuressaare 0.82 · FC Flora Tallinn 2.03

Over / Under 3Under 3 · 53%

BTTSYes · 52%

Most likely total2 goals

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Flora Tallinn (rating 1433 vs 1599).
H2H favours FC Flora Tallinn: 6-0-0.
High corners: 13.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Kuressaare	FC Flora Tallinn
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.3	2.5 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.4	1.2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6.1	3.8 / 7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.1	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

16.25

X4.50

21.36

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.98

2 (-1.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.7

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

How Bet365's odds have moved from when the line opened until now. It's market data, not a recommendation.

1X2

1 6.25 → 6.25 – 0%

X 4.50 → 4.50 – 0%

2 1.36 → 1.36 – 0%

Over/Under 3

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Both teams to score

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Kuressaare 0–0–6 FC Flora Tallinn

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/04/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Flora Tallinn	2-1 HT 1-0	FC Kuressaare
01/11/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Flora Tallinn	2-0 HT 1-0	FC Kuressaare
24/08/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Kuressaare	1-2 HT 1-2	FC Flora Tallinn
27/05/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Kuressaare	1-3 HT 0-1	FC Flora Tallinn
29/03/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Flora Tallinn	5-0 HT 1-0	FC Kuressaare
26/10/24 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Flora Tallinn	3-0 HT 1-0	FC Kuressaare

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	18	13	4	1	46	15	43
2	FC Flora Tallinn	17	11	0	6	35	19	33
3	JK Nomme Kalju	18	9	4	5	30	15	31
4	Paide Linnameeskond	18	8	5	5	27	22	29
5	JK Tammeka Tartu	16	7	2	7	18	20	23
6	Parnu JK Vaprus	17	7	2	8	21	31	23
7	JK Nomme United	17	6	1	10	33	40	19
8	Harju JK Laagri	17	6	1	10	21	30	19
9	FC Kuressaare	17	5	2	10	17	27	17
10	JK Trans Narva	17	3	1	13	11	40	10

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Kuressaare	FC Flora Tallinn
Parnu JK Vaprus	0-1 L	2-1 W
JK Trans Narva	0-0 D	3-0 W
Harju JK Laagri	3-2 W	5-0 W
Paide Linnameeskond	1-1 D	1-2 L
JK Nomme United	2-1 W	4-0 W
JK Nomme Kalju	0-2 L	1-0 W
FC Levadia Tallinn	1-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	6 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FC Flora Tallinn (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FC Kuressaare

LLLLLWDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/06	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-1	9	5	L
16/06	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
13/06	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	3-2	8	3	W
31/05	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-1	6	3	D
20/05	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	2-1	5	4	W
17/05	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-2	5	2	L
08/05	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	9	3	L
02/05	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-2	0	3	L
25/04	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-2	7	4	L
21/04	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	7	6	L

FC Flora Tallinn

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/06	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	2-1	2	5	W
21/06	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	1-2	5	4	L
16/06	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	2-1	12	5	W
13/06	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	1-3	4	6	L
29/05	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	4-0	10	5	W
23/05	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Cup	2-0	5-1	5	2	W
16/05	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	3-0	10	3	W
10/05	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	12	4	W
05/05	JK Trans Narva Estonia Cup	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
30/04	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	4-0	5-0	5	1	W