Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 03/07, 18:00

JK Nomme United vs JK Nomme Kalju

Expected goals: 3.59 (JK Nomme United 1.2 · JK Nomme Kalju 2.39). The model gives 17% home, 21% draw, 63% away. Over 3.25 goals (51%) and both teams to score (58%). Most likely score: 1-2.

63%2

17% 21% 63%

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JK Nomme United 1476 · JK Nomme Kalju 1500

	JK Nomme United	Draw	JK Nomme Kalju
Our model	17%	20%	63%
Market	16%	21%	62%

Estimated total (ours) 3.59 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).

Model analysis

Expected goals3.59JK Nomme United 1.2 · JK Nomme Kalju 2.39

Over / Under 3.25Over 3.25 · 51%

BTTSYes · 58%

Most likely total3 goals

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours JK Nomme Kalju: 3-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JK Nomme United	JK Nomme Kalju
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2.6	1.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.1	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.4	3.4 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.3	4.7 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

15.50

X4.20

21.44

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.80

2 (-1.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3.25

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

How Bet365's odds have moved from when the line opened until now. It's market data, not a recommendation.

1X2

1 5.50 → 5.50 – 0%

X 4.20 → 4.20 – 0%

2 1.44 → 1.44 – 0%

Over/Under 3.25

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Both teams to score

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Head-to-head (H2H) · JK Nomme United 0–2–3 JK Nomme Kalju

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/04/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme Kalju	7-1 HT 2-1	JK Nomme United
18/09/24 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme Kalju	3-0 HT 1-0	JK Nomme United
19/07/24 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme United	0-4 HT 0-1	JK Nomme Kalju
28/05/24 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme Kalju	1-1 HT 1-1	JK Nomme United
17/03/24 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme United	0-0 HT 0-0	JK Nomme Kalju

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	18	13	4	1	46	15	43
2	FC Flora Tallinn	17	11	0	6	35	19	33
3	JK Nomme Kalju	18	9	4	5	30	15	31
4	Paide Linnameeskond	18	8	5	5	27	22	29
5	JK Tammeka Tartu	16	7	2	7	18	20	23
6	Parnu JK Vaprus	17	7	2	8	21	31	23
7	JK Nomme United	17	6	1	10	33	40	19
8	Harju JK Laagri	17	6	1	10	21	30	19
9	FC Kuressaare	17	5	2	10	17	27	17
10	JK Trans Narva	17	3	1	13	11	40	10

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JK Nomme United	JK Nomme Kalju
Harju JK Laagri	3-1 W	1-0 W
FC Levadia Tallinn	1-2 L	1-1 D
JK Trans Narva	2-1 W	3-0 W
FC Flora Tallinn	0-4 L	0-1 L
FC Kuressaare	1-2 L	2-0 W
JK Tammeka Tartu	1-3 L	1-2 L
Paide Linnameeskond	2-3 L	1-1 D
Parnu JK Vaprus	3-2 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 5 L	3 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: JK Nomme Kalju (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

JK Nomme United

LWWLLLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/06	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	3-1	2	2	W
17/06	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-2	6	6	L
13/06	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-1	1	3	W
29/05	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-4	2	5	L
20/05	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-2	7	4	L
15/05	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	1-3	8	4	L
10/05	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	2-3	8	4	L
02/05	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	3-2	6	2	W
25/04	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-1	2	4	W
22/04	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	1-2	1-7	2	2	L

JK Nomme Kalju

LWLWWLDLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/06	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
20/06	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-1	3	5	D
17/06	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	1-2	6	6	L
14/06	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-1	4	10	D
30/05	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-3	9	4	L
20/05	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	7	7	W
17/05	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-0	1	2	W
10/05	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
01/05	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	3-0	8	5	W
26/04	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-2	9	5	L