Football · Australia New South Wales NPL Women · 04/07, 10:30
Northern Tigers FC (W) vs University NSW (W)
Expected goals: 3.21 (Northern Tigers FC (W) 1.17 · University NSW (W) 2.04). The model gives 21% home, 22% draw, 57% away. Over 3 goals (50%) and both teams to score (56%). Most likely score: 1-1.
57%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Northern Tigers FC (W) 1489 · University NSW (W) 1607
| Northern Tigers FC (W) | Draw | University NSW (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 21% | 23% | 56% |
| Market | 21% | 21% | 57% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.21 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.21Northern Tigers FC (W) 1.17 · University NSW (W) 2.04
Over / Under 3Over 3 · 50%
BTTSYes · 56%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours University NSW (W) (rating 1489 vs 1607).
- H2H favours University NSW (W): 3-0-2.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Northern Tigers FC (W) | University NSW (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.2 | 2.1 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.2 | 1.1 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/50/0% | 60/30/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.2 / 3.6 | 2.9 / 6.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0.1 | 1.2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Northern Tigers FC (W) 2–0–3 University NSW (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/26 Australia New South Wales NPL Women | University NSW (W) | 4-1 HT 1-1 | Northern Tigers FC (W) |
| 30/08/25 Australia New South Wales NPL Women | Northern Tigers FC (W) | 2-3 HT 1-2 | University NSW (W) |
| 01/06/25 Australia New South Wales NPL Women | University NSW (W) | 3-2 HT 1-0 | Northern Tigers FC (W) |
| 18/08/24 Australia New South Wales NPL Women | Northern Tigers FC (W) | 4-1 HT 3-0 | University NSW (W) |
| 19/05/24 Australia New South Wales NPL Women | University NSW (W) | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Northern Tigers FC (W) |
Standings · Australia New South Wales NPL Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University NSW (W) | 17 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 39 | 13 | 42 |
| 2 | Bulls FC Academy (W) | 17 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 47 | 16 | 40 |
| 3 | APIA Leichardt (W) | 17 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 44 | 22 | 37 |
| 4 | Western Sydney Wanderers NPL (W) | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 33 | 18 | 36 |
| 5 | Sydney University (W) | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 41 | 32 | 27 |
| 6 | Northern Tigers FC (W) | 17 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 29 | 25 | 23 |
| 7 | Manly Utd (W) | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 28 | 23 | 22 |
| 8 | Sydney Olympic FC (W) | 17 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 32 | 34 | 20 |
| 9 | Gladesville Ravens (W) | 17 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 26 | 32 | 20 |
| 10 | Macarthur Rams (W) | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 28 | 18 |
| 11 | Hills United FC (W) | 17 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 18 | 25 | 17 |
| 12 | Illawarra Stingrays (W) | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 15 | 28 | 13 |
| 13 | NWS Spirit (W) | 17 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 21 | 66 | 13 |
| 14 | Western City Rangers (W) | 17 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 16 | 48 | 7 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Northern Tigers FC (W) | University NSW (W) |
|---|---|---|
| NWS Spirit (W) | 1-2 L | 8-3 W |
| Manly Utd (W) | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Illawarra Stingrays (W) | 3-0 W | 3-1 W |
| APIA Leichardt (W) | 4-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Bulls FC Academy (W) | 0-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Macarthur Rams (W) | 2-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Hills United FC (W) | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 3 L | 6 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: University NSW (W) (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Northern Tigers FC (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | NWS Spirit (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 20/06 | Manly Utd (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 14/06 | Illawarra Stingrays (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
0-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 07/06 | Gladesville Ravens (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 31/05 | APIA Leichardt (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
1-0 | 4-1 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 26/05 | Illawarra Stingrays (W) Australia New South Wales Cup Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 23/05 | Bulls FC Academy (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 17/05 | Macarthur Rams (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
2-1 | 2-3 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 09/05 | Sydney Olympic FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
3-0 | 3-1 | 0 | 6 | W |
| 03/05 | Hills United FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
University NSW (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Bulls FC Academy (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 21/06 | Illawarra Stingrays (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
2-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 14/06 | Western Sydney Wanderers NPL (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 1 | W |
| 06/06 | Western City Rangers (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 31/05 | Hills United FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 23/05 | Sydney University (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 21/05 | APIA Leichardt (W) Australia New South Wales Cup Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | NWS Spirit (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
5-0 | 8-3 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 09/05 | Macarthur Rams (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 03/05 | Manly Utd (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
0-0 | 2-1 | 10 | 1 | W |