Football · Australia New South Wales NPL Women · 05/07, 08:50

APIA Leichardt (W) vs NWS Spirit (W)

Expected goals: 4.2 (APIA Leichardt (W) 2.84 · NWS Spirit (W) 1.36). The model gives 67% home, 18% draw, 15% away. Over 3.75 goals (53%) and both teams to score (60%). Most likely score: 2-1.

67%1

67% 18% 15%

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · APIA Leichardt (W) 1557 · NWS Spirit (W) 1466

	APIA Leichardt (W)	Draw	NWS Spirit (W)
Our model	68%	17%	15%
Market	67%	18%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 4.2 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).

Model analysis

Expected goals4.2APIA Leichardt (W) 2.84 · NWS Spirit (W) 1.36

Over / Under 3.75Over 3.75 · 53%

BTTSYes · 60%

Most likely total4 goals

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours APIA Leichardt (W) (rating 1557 vs 1466).
H2H favours APIA Leichardt (W): 4-1-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	APIA Leichardt (W)	NWS Spirit (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.8	1.8 / 3.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	0.7 / 1.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	20/10/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.3	2.1 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.6 / 0.1	2.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.33

X5.00

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.95

2 (+1.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.88

Under 3.751.93

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 4.6

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

How Bet365's odds have moved from when the line opened until now. It's market data, not a recommendation.

1X2

1 1.33 → 1.33 – 0%

X 5.00 → 5.00 – 0%

2 6.00 → 6.00 – 0%

Over/Under 3.75

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Head-to-head (H2H) · APIA Leichardt (W) 4–1–1 NWS Spirit (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	NWS Spirit (W)	0-4 HT 0-3	APIA Leichardt (W)
02/08/25 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	NWS Spirit (W)	0-3 HT 0-2	APIA Leichardt (W)
04/05/25 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	APIA Leichardt (W)	0-2 HT 0-2	NWS Spirit (W)
04/08/24 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	APIA Leichardt (W)	2-1 HT 1-0	NWS Spirit (W)
04/05/24 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	NWS Spirit (W)	2-2 HT 1-0	APIA Leichardt (W)
02/07/23 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	APIA Leichardt (W)	3-0 HT 1-0	NWS Spirit (W)

Standings · Australia New South Wales NPL Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	University NSW (W)	17	13	3	1	39	13	42
2	Bulls FC Academy (W)	17	12	4	1	47	16	40
3	APIA Leichardt (W)	17	12	1	4	44	22	37
4	Western Sydney Wanderers NPL (W)	16	11	3	2	33	18	36
5	Sydney University (W)	17	8	3	6	41	32	27
6	Northern Tigers FC (W)	17	7	2	8	29	25	23
7	Manly Utd (W)	17	5	7	5	28	23	22
8	Sydney Olympic FC (W)	17	6	2	9	32	34	20
9	Gladesville Ravens (W)	17	6	2	9	26	32	20
10	Macarthur Rams (W)	16	5	3	8	21	28	18
11	Hills United FC (W)	17	5	2	10	18	25	17
12	Illawarra Stingrays (W)	17	3	4	10	15	28	13
13	NWS Spirit (W)	17	4	1	12	21	66	13
14	Western City Rangers (W)	17	2	1	14	16	48	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	APIA Leichardt (W)	NWS Spirit (W)
Manly Utd (W)	2-1 W	1-3 L
Hills United FC (W)	4-1 W	0-5 L
Sydney University (W)	3-0 W	0-6 L
Northern Tigers FC (W)	1-4 L	2-1 W
Western Sydney Wanderers NPL (W)	2-3 L	0-5 L
University NSW (W)	0-1 L	3-8 L
Gladesville Ravens (W)	2-3 L	3-1 W
Bulls FC Academy (W)	2-3 L	4-4 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 5 L	2 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: APIA Leichardt (W) (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

APIA Leichardt (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/06	Manly Utd (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-1	2-1	5	0	W
21/06	Macarthur Rams (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	2-0	2-1	1	1	W
14/06	Hills United FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	2-1	4-1	6	4	W
07/06	Sydney University (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-0	3-0	7	2	W
31/05	Northern Tigers FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-1	1-4	7	2	L
24/05	Western Sydney Wanderers NPL (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-1	2-3	2	0	L
21/05	University NSW (W) Australia New South Wales Cup Women	0-1	0-1	3	2	L
17/05	Illawarra Stingrays (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	2-0	5-1	5	2	W
10/05	Gladesville Ravens (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-2	2-3	11	3	L
03/05	Bulls FC Academy (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-1	2-3	6	1	L

NWS Spirit (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/06	Northern Tigers FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-1	2-1	4	4	W
21/06	Bulls FC Academy (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-2	4-4	3	3	D
13/06	Western City Rangers (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	3-0	4-0	7	2	W
07/06	Sydney Olympic FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
30/05	Gladesville Ravens (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	2-0	3-1	10	3	W
22/05	Manly Utd (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-2	1-3	1	3	L
16/05	University NSW (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-5	3-8	3	1	L
10/05	Western Sydney Wanderers NPL (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-2	0-5	1	1	L
02/05	Sydney University (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-3	0-6	0	1	L
26/04	Hills United FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-2	0-5	1	1	L