Football · Australia New South Wales NPL Women · 05/07, 09:00
Western City Rangers (W) vs Manly Utd (W)
Expected goals: 3.36 (Western City Rangers (W) 0.96 · Manly Utd (W) 2.4). The model gives 13% home, 18% draw, 69% away. Under 3.5 goals (54%) and both teams to score (55%). Most likely score: 0-2.
69%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Western City Rangers (W) 1380 · Manly Utd (W) 1521
| Western City Rangers (W) | Draw | Manly Utd (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 12% | 19% | 69% |
| Market | 14% | 16% | 70% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.36 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.36Western City Rangers (W) 0.96 · Manly Utd (W) 2.4
Over / Under 3.5Under 3.5 · 54%
BTTSYes · 55%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Manly Utd (W) (rating 1380 vs 1521).
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Western City Rangers (W) | Manly Utd (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 3.2 | 1.5 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 1.7 | 0.6 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/20/70% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 3.7 | 1.7 / 3.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2 / 0.1 | 1.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Western City Rangers (W) 1–1–1 Manly Utd (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/04/26 Australia New South Wales NPL Women | Manly Utd (W) | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Western City Rangers (W) |
| 22/06/25 Australia New South Wales NPL Women | Western City Rangers (W) | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Manly Utd (W) |
| 23/03/25 Australia New South Wales NPL Women | Manly Utd (W) | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Western City Rangers (W) |
Standings · Australia New South Wales NPL Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University NSW (W) | 17 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 39 | 13 | 42 |
| 2 | Bulls FC Academy (W) | 17 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 47 | 16 | 40 |
| 3 | APIA Leichardt (W) | 17 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 44 | 22 | 37 |
| 4 | Western Sydney Wanderers NPL (W) | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 33 | 18 | 36 |
| 5 | Sydney University (W) | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 41 | 32 | 27 |
| 6 | Northern Tigers FC (W) | 17 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 29 | 25 | 23 |
| 7 | Manly Utd (W) | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 28 | 23 | 22 |
| 8 | Sydney Olympic FC (W) | 17 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 32 | 34 | 20 |
| 9 | Gladesville Ravens (W) | 17 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 26 | 32 | 20 |
| 10 | Macarthur Rams (W) | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 28 | 18 |
| 11 | Hills United FC (W) | 17 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 18 | 25 | 17 |
| 12 | Illawarra Stingrays (W) | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 15 | 28 | 13 |
| 13 | NWS Spirit (W) | 17 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 21 | 66 | 13 |
| 14 | Western City Rangers (W) | 17 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 16 | 48 | 7 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Western City Rangers (W) | Manly Utd (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney University (W) | 2-5 L | 1-1 D |
| NWS Spirit (W) | 0-4 L | 3-1 W |
| University NSW (W) | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Bulls FC Academy (W) | 0-4 L | 2-2 D |
| Macarthur Rams (W) | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Sydney Olympic FC (W) | 1-3 L | 2-2 D |
| Western Sydney Wanderers NPL (W) | 1-4 L | 2-0 W |
| Illawarra Stingrays (W) | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 7 L | 3 W 4 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Manly Utd (W) (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Western City Rangers (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Sydney University (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
0-2 | 2-5 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 21/06 | Gladesville Ravens (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
0-4 | 0-6 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 13/06 | NWS Spirit (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
0-3 | 0-4 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 06/06 | University NSW (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 31/05 | Bulls FC Academy (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
0-1 | 0-4 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 24/05 | Macarthur Rams (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | Sydney Olympic FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
1-0 | 1-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 10/05 | Hills United FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 03/05 | Western Sydney Wanderers NPL (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
0-3 | 1-4 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 26/04 | Illawarra Stingrays (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | D |
Manly Utd (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | APIA Leichardt (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 20/06 | Northern Tigers FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 14/06 | Sydney Olympic FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | D |
| 07/06 | Macarthur Rams (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | D |
| 31/05 | Sydney University (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 27/05 | Western Sydney Wanderers NPL (W) Australia New South Wales Cup Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 22/05 | NWS Spirit (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
2-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | Bulls FC Academy (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 10/05 | Illawarra Stingrays (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 03/05 | University NSW (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | L |