Football · Australia Victoria Premier League 1 · 03/07, 12:30
Northcote City vs FC Melbourne Srbija
Expected goals: 2.31 (Northcote City 1.5 · FC Melbourne Srbija 0.81). The model gives 54% home, 25% draw, 21% away. Under 3 goals (62%) and both teams to score (50%). Most likely score: 1-0.
54%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Northcote City 1538 · FC Melbourne Srbija 1545
| Northcote City | Draw | FC Melbourne Srbija | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 29% | 19% |
| Market | 55% | 22% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.31 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.7
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.31Northcote City 1.5 · FC Melbourne Srbija 0.81
Over / Under 3Under 3 · 62%
BTTSYes · 50%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 74%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Northcote City | FC Melbourne Srbija | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1 | 1.3 / 0.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.4 / 6.4 | 1.7 / 3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.1 | 1.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Northcote City 1–1–1 FC Melbourne Srbija
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 Australia Victoria Premier League 1 | FC Melbourne Srbija | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Northcote City |
| 13/06/25 Australia Victoria Premier League 1 | Northcote City | 0-1 HT 0-0 | FC Melbourne Srbija |
| 08/03/25 Australia Victoria Premier League 1 | FC Melbourne Srbija | 2-2 HT 0-0 | Northcote City |
Standings · Australia Victoria Premier League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Northcote City | 18 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 32 | 16 | 39 |
| 2 | Melbourne Knights | 18 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 31 | 15 | 35 |
| 3 | Brunswick Juventus | 18 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 28 | 24 | 33 |
| 4 | Melbourne Victory NPL | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 43 | 29 | 30 |
| 5 | Bulleen Lions | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 31 | 23 | 29 |
| 6 | North Geelong | 17 | 9 | 0 | 8 | 31 | 33 | 27 |
| 7 | FC Melbourne Srbija | 17 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 21 | 19 | 26 |
| 8 | Eltham Redbacks | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 39 | 33 | 25 |
| 9 | Manningham United Blues | 18 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 31 | 36 | 25 |
| 10 | Brunswick City | 18 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 33 | 34 | 23 |
| 11 | Langwarrin | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 32 | 36 | 22 |
| 12 | Western United FC NPL | 18 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 35 | 43 | 22 |
| 13 | North Sunshine Eagles | 18 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 21 | 34 | 14 |
| 14 | Port Melbourne SC | 18 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 9 | 42 | 9 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Northcote City | FC Melbourne Srbija |
|---|---|---|
| North Sunshine Eagles | 2-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Langwarrin | 3-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Western United FC NPL | 2-1 W | 3-0 W |
| Brunswick City | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Bulleen Lions | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Brunswick Juventus | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Melbourne Victory NPL | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Eltham Redbacks | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 5 W 2 D 1 L | 5 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Northcote City (3 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Northcote City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | North Sunshine Eagles Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 13/06 | North Geelong Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 05/06 | Langwarrin Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 31/05 | Western United FC NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 22/05 | Brunswick City Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 15/05 | Bulleen Lions Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 12/05 | Bentleigh Greens Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-2 | 0-3 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 08/05 | Brunswick Juventus Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 01/05 | Melbourne Victory NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 3 | W |
| 24/04 | Eltham Redbacks Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
FC Melbourne Srbija
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Melbourne Knights Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 13/06 | North Sunshine Eagles Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 30/05 | Langwarrin Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 23/05 | Western United FC NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 16/05 | Brunswick City Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 09/05 | Bulleen Lions Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | D |
| 02/05 | Brunswick Juventus Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 28/04 | St Albans Saints Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 25/04 | Melbourne Victory NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 18/04 | Eltham Redbacks Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | L |