Football · Australia Victoria Premier League 1 · 05/07, 06:00
Western United FC NPL vs Melbourne Victory NPL
Expected goals: 4.29 (Western United FC NPL 1.81 · Melbourne Victory NPL 2.48). The model gives 28% home, 20% draw, 52% away. Over 4 goals (50%) and both teams to score (63%). Most likely score: 1-2.
52%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Western United FC NPL 1480 · Melbourne Victory NPL 1566
| Western United FC NPL | Draw | Melbourne Victory NPL | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 28% | 20% | 52% |
| Market | 28% | 21% | 52% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.29 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals4.29Western United FC NPL 1.81 · Melbourne Victory NPL 2.48
Over / Under 4Over 4 · 50%
BTTSYes · 63%
Most likely total4 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Melbourne Victory NPL (rating 1480 vs 1566).
- H2H favours Melbourne Victory NPL: 2-2-1.
- High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Western United FC NPL | Melbourne Victory NPL | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 2.5 | 2.8 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 1.1 | 0.7 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 4.6 | 2.9 / 7.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.8 / 0 | 3.6 / 0.6 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Western United FC NPL 1–2–2 Melbourne Victory NPL
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/03/26 Australia Victoria Premier League 1 | Melbourne Victory NPL | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Western United FC NPL |
| 17/08/24 Australia Victoria Premier League 1 | Melbourne Victory NPL | 2-4 HT 2-2 | Western United FC NPL |
| 12/05/24 Australia Victoria Premier League 1 | Western United FC NPL | 4-4 HT 3-3 | Melbourne Victory NPL |
| 01/05/22 Australia Victoria Premier League 3 | Western United FC NPL | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Melbourne Victory NPL |
| 27/06/21 Australia Victoria Premier League 3 | Western United FC NPL | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Melbourne Victory NPL |
Standings · Australia Victoria Premier League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Northcote City | 18 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 32 | 16 | 39 |
| 2 | Melbourne Knights | 18 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 31 | 15 | 35 |
| 3 | Brunswick Juventus | 18 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 28 | 24 | 33 |
| 4 | Melbourne Victory NPL | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 43 | 29 | 30 |
| 5 | Bulleen Lions | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 31 | 23 | 29 |
| 6 | North Geelong | 17 | 9 | 0 | 8 | 31 | 33 | 27 |
| 7 | FC Melbourne Srbija | 17 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 21 | 19 | 26 |
| 8 | Eltham Redbacks | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 39 | 33 | 25 |
| 9 | Manningham United Blues | 18 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 31 | 36 | 25 |
| 10 | Brunswick City | 18 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 33 | 34 | 23 |
| 11 | Langwarrin | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 32 | 36 | 22 |
| 12 | Western United FC NPL | 18 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 35 | 43 | 22 |
| 13 | North Sunshine Eagles | 18 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 21 | 34 | 14 |
| 14 | Port Melbourne SC | 18 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 9 | 42 | 9 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Western United FC NPL | Melbourne Victory NPL |
|---|---|---|
| Eltham Redbacks | 4-3 W | 3-3 D |
| Port Melbourne SC | 0-0 D | 3-1 W |
| Manningham United Blues | 4-3 W | 4-0 W |
| Northcote City | 1-2 L | 0-1 L |
| FC Melbourne Srbija | 0-3 L | 1-2 L |
| North Sunshine Eagles | 2-3 L | 4-1 W |
| Melbourne Knights | 3-2 W | 1-2 L |
| Brunswick City | 2-4 L | 4-1 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 4 L | 4 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Melbourne Victory NPL (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Western United FC NPL
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/06 | Eltham Redbacks Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
3-1 | 4-3 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 13/06 | Port Melbourne SC Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 06/06 | Manningham United Blues Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-1 | 4-3 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 31/05 | Northcote City Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 23/05 | FC Melbourne Srbija Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-2 | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 16/05 | North Sunshine Eagles Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 2-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | North Geelong Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-1 | 3-2 | 0 | 1 | W |
| 02/05 | Langwarrin Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-3 | 2-3 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 26/04 | Melbourne Knights Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 19/04 | Brunswick City Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-1 | 2-4 | 3 | 1 | L |
Melbourne Victory NPL
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06 | Brunswick City Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-1 | 4-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 13/06 | Bulleen Lions Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-0 | 4-2 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 08/06 | Brunswick Juventus Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
2-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 7 | W |
| 01/06 | Melbourne Knights Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 22/05 | Eltham Redbacks Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-2 | 3-3 | 7 | 7 | D |
| 16/05 | Port Melbourne SC Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 11/05 | Manningham United Blues Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 01/05 | Northcote City Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | FC Melbourne Srbija Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 13 | 3 | L |
| 18/04 | North Sunshine Eagles Australia Victoria Premier League 1 |
1-0 | 4-1 | – | – | W |