Football · Iceland Premier League · 04/07, 16:00
IA Akranes vs Breidablik
Expected goals: 3.68 (IA Akranes 1.82 · Breidablik 1.86). The model gives 37% home, 24% draw, 39% away. Under 3.75 goals (51%) and both teams to score (60%). Most likely score: 1-1.
39%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · IA Akranes 1470 · Breidablik 1565
| IA Akranes | Draw | Breidablik | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 23% | 39% |
| Market | 37% | 24% | 39% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.68 goals · Bet365 line 3.75
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.68IA Akranes 1.82 · Breidablik 1.86
Over / Under 3.75Under 3.75 · 51%
BTTSYes · 60%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Breidablik (rating 1470 vs 1565).
- H2H favours Breidablik: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 14.2 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| IA Akranes | Breidablik | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 2 | 3 / 2.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.5 | 1.3 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 7.1 | 3.9 / 7.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0 | 4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · IA Akranes 2–1–3 Breidablik
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/04/26 Iceland Premier League | Breidablik | 1-0 HT 1-0 | IA Akranes |
| 11/09/25 Iceland Premier League | IA Akranes | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Breidablik |
| 29/05/25 Iceland Premier League | Breidablik | 1-4 HT 1-3 | IA Akranes |
| 23/09/24 Iceland Premier League | Breidablik | 2-0 HT 0-0 | IA Akranes |
| 25/08/24 Iceland Premier League | IA Akranes | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Breidablik |
| 23/06/24 Iceland Premier League | Breidablik | 1-1 HT 0-0 | IA Akranes |
Standings · Iceland Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vikingur Reykjavik | 13 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 45 | 7 | 37 |
| 2 | KR Reykjavik | 13 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 45 | 31 | 28 |
| 3 | Fram Reykjavik | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 31 | 24 | 26 |
| 4 | Breidablik | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 30 | 24 | 19 |
| 5 | Valur Reykjavik | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 24 | 26 | 19 |
| 6 | Keflavik | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 23 | 15 |
| 7 | IA Akranes | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 23 | 15 |
| 8 | Stjarnan | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 26 | 29 | 14 |
| 9 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 26 | 12 |
| 10 | KA Akureyri | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 17 | 25 | 10 |
| 11 | FH Hafnarfjordur | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 16 | 29 | 7 |
| 12 | Thor Akureyri | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 11 | 32 | 7 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | IA Akranes | Breidablik |
|---|---|---|
| Fram Reykjavik | 0-2 L | 3-4 L |
| KR Reykjavik | 3-5 L | 6-3 W |
| Valur Reykjavik | 1-0 W | 2-3 L |
| Vikingur Reykjavik | 1-2 L | 3-0 W |
| FH Hafnarfjordur | 1-0 W | 3-3 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 3 L | 2 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Breidablik (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
IA Akranes
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | Fram Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 22/06 | KR Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
2-2 | 3-5 | 11 | 4 | L |
| 16/06 | Valur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 12/06 | Vikingur Reykjavik Iceland Cup |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 29/05 | FH Hafnarfjordur Iceland Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 21/05 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar Iceland Premier League |
0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 17/05 | Thor Akureyri Iceland Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 13 | 8 | W |
| 13/05 | Grindavik Iceland Cup |
1-0 | 1-1 | 16 | 1 | D |
| 08/05 | Keflavik Iceland Premier League |
0-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 27/04 | Vikingur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
0-0 | 0-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
Breidablik
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Vikingur Reykjavik Iceland Cup |
0-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 25/06 | Vikingur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
0-1 | 1-4 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 21/06 | KA Akureyri Iceland Premier League |
0-0 | 3-1 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 16/06 | Stjarnan Iceland Premier League |
3-2 | 4-4 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 12/06 | KF Aegir Iceland Cup |
2-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 29/05 | Fram Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
1-3 | 3-4 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 22/05 | KR Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
4-2 | 6-3 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | Valur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 13 | 1 | L |
| 13/05 | Throttur Reykjavik Iceland Cup |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 08/05 | FH Hafnarfjordur Iceland Premier League |
2-0 | 3-3 | 13 | 5 | D |