Football · Iceland Premier League · 06/07, 21:15
Keflavik vs Fram Reykjavik
Expected goals: 3.88 (Keflavik 1.8 · Fram Reykjavik 2.08). The model gives 33% home, 23% draw, 44% away. Over 3.5 goals (52%) and both teams to score (61%). Most likely score: 1-1.
44%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Keflavik 1494 · Fram Reykjavik 1567
| Keflavik | Draw | Fram Reykjavik | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 22% | 44% |
| Market | 33% | 24% | 44% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.88 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.88Keflavik 1.8 · Fram Reykjavik 2.08
Over / Under 3.5Over 3.5 · 52%
BTTSYes · 61%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fram Reykjavik (rating 1494 vs 1567).
- H2H favours Fram Reykjavik: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 13.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Keflavik | Fram Reykjavik | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.7 | 2.5 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.8 | 1.4 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 6 | 3.4 / 7.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0 | 3.5 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Keflavik 2–1–3 Fram Reykjavik
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/04/26 Iceland Premier League | Fram Reykjavik | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Keflavik |
| 06/03/26 Iceland League Cup | Keflavik | 4-3 HT 1-1 | Fram Reykjavik |
| 28/09/23 Iceland Premier League | Fram Reykjavik | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Keflavik |
| 27/08/23 Iceland Premier League | Keflavik | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Fram Reykjavik |
| 02/06/23 Iceland Premier League | Fram Reykjavik | 4-1 HT 1-0 | Keflavik |
| 29/10/22 Iceland Premier League | Keflavik | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Fram Reykjavik |
Standings · Iceland Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vikingur Reykjavik | 13 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 45 | 7 | 37 |
| 2 | KR Reykjavik | 13 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 45 | 31 | 28 |
| 3 | Fram Reykjavik | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 31 | 24 | 26 |
| 4 | Breidablik | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 30 | 24 | 19 |
| 5 | Valur Reykjavik | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 24 | 26 | 19 |
| 6 | Keflavik | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 23 | 15 |
| 7 | IA Akranes | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 23 | 15 |
| 8 | Stjarnan | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 26 | 29 | 14 |
| 9 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 26 | 12 |
| 10 | KA Akureyri | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 17 | 25 | 10 |
| 11 | FH Hafnarfjordur | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 16 | 29 | 7 |
| 12 | Thor Akureyri | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 11 | 32 | 7 |
Common opponents 10 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Keflavik | Fram Reykjavik |
|---|---|---|
| KR Reykjavik | 3-2 W | 2-2 D |
| Valur Reykjavik | 1-1 D | 3-2 W |
| FH Hafnarfjordur | 1-2 L | 4-3 W |
| IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 1-6 L | 5-1 W |
| Thor Akureyri | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Stjarnan | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| IA Akranes | 3-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Vikingur Reykjavik | 1-3 L | 0-5 L |
| KA Akureyri | 2-1 W | 4-3 W |
| Breidablik | 0-0 D | 4-3 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 3 D 3 L | 7 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Fram Reykjavik (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Keflavik
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | KR Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 21/06 | Valur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 14/06 | FH Hafnarfjordur Iceland Premier League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 31/05 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar Iceland Premier League |
0-2 | 1-6 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 22/05 | Thor Akureyri Iceland Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | Stjarnan Iceland Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 08/05 | IA Akranes Iceland Premier League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 03/05 | Vikingur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 26/04 | KA Akureyri Iceland Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 22/04 | Breidablik Iceland Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 6 | D |
Fram Reykjavik
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | IA Akranes Iceland Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 21/06 | Vikingur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
0-2 | 0-5 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 15/06 | KA Akureyri Iceland Premier League |
3-2 | 4-3 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 29/05 | Breidablik Iceland Premier League |
3-1 | 4-3 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 22/05 | Stjarnan Iceland Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 17/05 | KR Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 11 | 4 | D |
| 08/05 | Valur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
2-2 | 3-2 | 11 | 2 | W |
| 03/05 | FH Hafnarfjordur Iceland Premier League |
1-3 | 4-3 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 27/04 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar Iceland Premier League |
2-0 | 5-1 | 11 | 1 | W |
| 23/04 | Thor Akureyri Iceland Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 11 | 4 | L |