Football · Iceland Premier League · 02/07, 19:00
Thor Akureyri vs KR Reykjavik
Expected goals: 4.5 (Thor Akureyri 1.38 · KR Reykjavik 3.12). The model gives 13% home, 17% draw, 71% away. Under 4.5 goals (53%) and both teams to score (61%). Most likely score: 1-3.
71%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Thor Akureyri 1385 · KR Reykjavik 1550
| Thor Akureyri | Draw | KR Reykjavik | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 13% | 15% | 71% |
| Market | 12% | 18% | 70% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.5 goals · Bet365 line 4.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals4.5Thor Akureyri 1.38 · KR Reykjavik 3.12
Over / Under 4.5Under 4.5 · 53%
BTTSYes · 61%
Most likely total4 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours KR Reykjavik (rating 1385 vs 1550).
- H2H favours KR Reykjavik: 4-0-2.
- High corners: 14.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Thor Akureyri | KR Reykjavik | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 2.6 | 2.8 / 2.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.1 / 1.2 | 1.4 / 1.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/20/70% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 5.8 | 3.8 / 8.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0.1 | 4.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Thor Akureyri 2–0–4 KR Reykjavik
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/04/26 Iceland Premier League | KR Reykjavik | 5-2 HT 2-0 | Thor Akureyri |
| 02/03/24 Iceland League Cup | Thor Akureyri | 4-0 HT 2-0 | KR Reykjavik |
| 27/02/21 Iceland League Cup | Thor Akureyri | 0-4 HT 0-1 | KR Reykjavik |
| 09/04/17 Iceland League Cup | KR Reykjavik | 4-1 HT 3-0 | Thor Akureyri |
| 04/10/14 Iceland Premier League | KR Reykjavik | 4-1 HT 2-1 | Thor Akureyri |
| 10/07/14 Iceland Premier League | Thor Akureyri | 2-0 HT 1-0 | KR Reykjavik |
Standings · Iceland Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vikingur Reykjavik | 13 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 45 | 7 | 37 |
| 2 | KR Reykjavik | 13 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 45 | 31 | 28 |
| 3 | Fram Reykjavik | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 31 | 24 | 26 |
| 4 | Breidablik | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 30 | 24 | 19 |
| 5 | Valur Reykjavik | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 24 | 26 | 19 |
| 6 | Keflavik | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 23 | 15 |
| 7 | IA Akranes | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 23 | 15 |
| 8 | Stjarnan | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 26 | 29 | 14 |
| 9 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 26 | 12 |
| 10 | KA Akureyri | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 17 | 25 | 10 |
| 11 | FH Hafnarfjordur | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 16 | 29 | 7 |
| 12 | Thor Akureyri | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 11 | 32 | 7 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Thor Akureyri | KR Reykjavik |
|---|---|---|
| Valur Reykjavik | 2-4 L | 3-1 W |
| Stjarnan | 1-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Keflavik | 0-1 L | 2-3 L |
| IA Akranes | 1-2 L | 5-3 W |
| Vikingur Reykjavik | 0-6 L | 0-2 L |
| KA Akureyri | 0-1 L | 5-3 W |
| Breidablik | 0-4 L | 3-6 L |
| Fram Reykjavik | 1-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 7 L | 3 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: KR Reykjavik (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Thor Akureyri
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Valur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
0-2 | 2-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 21/06 | FH Hafnarfjordur Iceland Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 14/06 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar Iceland Premier League |
0-3 | 1-4 | 10 | 2 | L |
| 31/05 | Stjarnan Iceland Premier League |
1-0 | 1-3 | 10 | 6 | L |
| 22/05 | Keflavik Iceland Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 17/05 | IA Akranes Iceland Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 08/05 | Vikingur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
0-3 | 0-6 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | KA Akureyri Iceland Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 12 | 3 | L |
| 27/04 | Breidablik Iceland Premier League |
0-1 | 0-4 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 23/04 | Fram Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
KR Reykjavik
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Keflavik Iceland Premier League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 22/06 | IA Akranes Iceland Premier League |
2-2 | 5-3 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 16/06 | Vikingur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 10 | 5 | L |
| 31/05 | KA Akureyri Iceland Premier League |
3-0 | 5-3 | 11 | 4 | W |
| 26/05 | Valur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 12 | 8 | W |
| 22/05 | Breidablik Iceland Premier League |
2-4 | 3-6 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | Fram Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 13/05 | Stjarnan Iceland Cup |
1-2 | 1-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 08/05 | Stjarnan Iceland Premier League |
0-2 | 3-2 | 11 | 5 | W |
| 02/05 | Valur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
2-0 | 4-1 | 11 | 6 | W |