Football · Australia NPL Victoria · 04/07, 07:15

Altona Magic vs Melbourne City FC 2

Expected goals: 2.8 (Altona Magic 1.15 · Melbourne City FC 2 1.65). The model gives 26% home, 26% draw, 48% away. Over 2.75 goals (50%) and both teams to score (54%). Most likely score: 1-1.

48%2

26% 26% 48%

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Altona Magic 1485 · Melbourne City FC 2 1526

	Altona Magic	Draw	Melbourne City FC 2
Our model	25%	27%	48%
Market	26%	25%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 2.8 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).

Model analysis

Expected goals2.8Altona Magic 1.15 · Melbourne City FC 2 1.65

Over / Under 2.75Over 2.75 · 50%

BTTSYes · 54%

Most likely total2 goals

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Melbourne City FC 2 (rating 1485 vs 1526).
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Altona Magic	Melbourne City FC 2
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.9	1.9 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.1	1.1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.3	2 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.2	3.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.40

X3.60

21.83

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.93

2 (-0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.05

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

How Bet365's odds have moved from when the line opened until now. It's market data, not a recommendation.

1X2

1 3.40 → 3.40 – 0%

X 3.60 → 3.60 – 0%

2 1.83 → 1.83 – 0%

Over/Under 2.75

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Both teams to score

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← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Altona Magic 0–1–0 Melbourne City FC 2

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 Australia NPL Victoria	Melbourne City FC 2	1-1 HT 0-1	Altona Magic

Standings · Australia NPL Victoria

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Oakleigh Cannons	18	12	4	2	40	17	40
2	Hume City	18	12	3	3	39	22	39
3	Avondale	18	11	1	6	51	22	34
4	Heidelberg Utd	18	9	3	6	30	23	30
5	Melbourne City FC 2	17	7	5	5	32	20	26
6	Preston Lions	17	10	2	5	25	13	26
7	Caroline Springs George Cross FC	18	6	7	5	24	25	25
8	South Melbourne	18	8	1	9	28	32	25
9	Dandenong City	18	7	4	7	26	25	21
10	St Albans Saints	18	6	3	9	20	33	21
11	Altona Magic	18	5	4	9	21	32	19
12	Bentleigh Greens	18	4	4	10	17	39	16
13	Dandenong Thunder	18	3	3	12	20	41	12
14	Green Gully	18	1	4	13	10	39	7

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Altona Magic	Melbourne City FC 2
Bentleigh Greens	1-0 W	7-0 W
St Albans Saints	1-2 L	2-0 W
South Melbourne	3-2 W	2-1 W
Oakleigh Cannons	0-2 L	1-3 L
Hume City	1-3 L	0-1 L
Avondale	1-5 L	1-3 L
Dandenong City	1-0 W	0-1 L
Caroline Springs George Cross FC	1-1 D	1-1 D
Dandenong Thunder	2-4 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 5 L	4 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Melbourne City FC 2 (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Altona Magic

LDWLWLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/06	Bentleigh Greens Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
21/06	St Albans Saints Australia NPL Victoria	1-1	1-2	8	1	L
07/06	South Melbourne Australia NPL Victoria	1-2	3-2	2	2	W
30/05	Oakleigh Cannons Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	0-2	4	2	L
23/05	Hume City Australia NPL Victoria	1-2	1-3	5	3	L
16/05	Preston Lions Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	1-0	4	1	W
09/05	Avondale Australia NPL Victoria	1-2	1-5	7	4	L
02/05	Dandenong City Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	1-0	6	7	W
25/04	Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	1-1	2	6	D
18/04	Dandenong Thunder Australia NPL Victoria	0-3	2-4	10	8	L

Melbourne City FC 2

DLLWWWWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/06	St Albans Saints Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
19/06	Oakleigh Cannons Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	1-3	5	3	L
30/05	Dandenong City Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
24/05	Dandenong Thunder Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
15/05	Green Gully Australia NPL Victoria	1-1	3-1	8	3	W
08/05	Bentleigh Greens Australia NPL Victoria	6-0	7-0	8	1	W
01/05	South Melbourne Australia NPL Victoria	1-1	2-1	2	5	W
26/04	Hume City Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
18/04	Avondale Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	1-3	4	8	L
12/04	Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria	1-1	1-1	5	2	D