Football · Australia NPL Victoria · 03/07, 11:30
Green Gully vs Bentleigh Greens
Expected goals: 2.85 (Green Gully 1.52 · Bentleigh Greens 1.33). The model gives 41% home, 27% draw, 32% away. Over 2.5 goals (53%) and both teams to score (55%). Most likely score: 1-1.
41%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Green Gully 1408 · Bentleigh Greens 1408
| Green Gully | Draw | Bentleigh Greens | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 27% | 32% |
| Market | 41% | 27% | 32% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.85 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.85Green Gully 1.52 · Bentleigh Greens 1.33
Over / Under 2.5Over 2.5 · 53%
BTTSYes · 55%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Green Gully | Bentleigh Greens | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.6 / 2.2 | 0.9 / 3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.9 | 0.6 / 2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 20/10/70% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.9 | 1.8 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.1 | 2.5 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Green Gully 3–0–3 Bentleigh Greens
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/03/26 Australia NPL Victoria | Bentleigh Greens | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Green Gully |
| 02/06/23 Australia Victoria Premier League | Green Gully | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Bentleigh Greens |
| 03/03/23 Australia Victoria Premier League | Bentleigh Greens | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Green Gully |
| 26/08/22 Australia NPL Victoria | Green Gully | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Bentleigh Greens |
| 01/07/22 Australia Victoria Premier League | Green Gully | 0-4 HT 0-2 | Bentleigh Greens |
| 01/04/22 Australia Victoria Premier League | Bentleigh Greens | 3-0 HT 0-0 | Green Gully |
Standings · Australia NPL Victoria
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oakleigh Cannons | 18 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 40 | 17 | 40 |
| 2 | Hume City | 18 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 39 | 22 | 39 |
| 3 | Avondale | 18 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 51 | 22 | 34 |
| 4 | Heidelberg Utd | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 30 | 23 | 30 |
| 5 | Melbourne City FC 2 | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 32 | 20 | 26 |
| 6 | Preston Lions | 17 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 25 | 13 | 26 |
| 7 | Caroline Springs George Cross FC | 18 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 24 | 25 | 25 |
| 8 | South Melbourne | 18 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 28 | 32 | 25 |
| 9 | Dandenong City | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 26 | 25 | 21 |
| 10 | St Albans Saints | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 20 | 33 | 21 |
| 11 | Altona Magic | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 21 | 32 | 19 |
| 12 | Bentleigh Greens | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 39 | 16 |
| 13 | Dandenong Thunder | 18 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 20 | 41 | 12 |
| 14 | Green Gully | 18 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 10 | 39 | 7 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Green Gully | Bentleigh Greens |
|---|---|---|
| South Melbourne | 2-1 W | 1-5 L |
| Hume City | 2-3 L | 1-5 L |
| Avondale | 0-2 L | 0-4 L |
| Caroline Springs George Cross FC | 0-0 D | 0-0 D |
| Heidelberg Utd | 0-1 L | 0-2 L |
| Melbourne City FC 2 | 1-3 L | 0-7 L |
| St Albans Saints | 0-1 L | 2-4 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 5 L | 0 W 1 D 6 L |
Better against common opponents: Green Gully (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Green Gully
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | South Melbourne Australia NPL Victoria |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 20/06 | Hume City Australia NPL Victoria |
1-0 | 2-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 05/06 | Avondale Australia NPL Victoria |
0-1 | 0-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 30/05 | Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 2 | D |
| 22/05 | Heidelberg Utd Australia NPL Victoria |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 15/05 | Melbourne City FC 2 Australia NPL Victoria |
1-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 08/05 | St Albans Saints Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 01/05 | Oakleigh Cannons Australia NPL Victoria |
0-2 | 0-5 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 24/04 | Preston Lions Australia NPL Victoria |
0-2 | 0-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 17/04 | Dandenong City Australia NPL Victoria |
1-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 8 | L |
Bentleigh Greens
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | Altona Magic Australia NPL Victoria |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 19/06 | South Melbourne Australia NPL Victoria |
1-3 | 1-5 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 05/06 | Hume City Australia NPL Victoria |
1-3 | 1-5 | 9 | 0 | L |
| 30/05 | Avondale Australia NPL Victoria |
0-2 | 0-4 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 26/05 | Heidelberg Utd Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 22/05 | Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 6 | D |
| 15/05 | Heidelberg Utd Australia NPL Victoria |
1-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 12/05 | Northcote City Australia Cup Qualifying |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 08/05 | Melbourne City FC 2 Australia NPL Victoria |
0-6 | 0-7 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 01/05 | St Albans Saints Australia NPL Victoria |
1-3 | 2-4 | 2 | 3 | L |