Football · Australia NPL Victoria · 03/07, 11:30
Heidelberg Utd vs St Albans Saints
Expected goals: 2.9 (Heidelberg Utd 1.94 · St Albans Saints 0.96). The model gives 59% home, 23% draw, 18% away. Under 3 goals (53%) and both teams to score (53%). Most likely score: 1-1.
59%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Heidelberg Utd 1509 · St Albans Saints 1490
| Heidelberg Utd | Draw | St Albans Saints | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 24% | 17% |
| Market | 60% | 22% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.9 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.9Heidelberg Utd 1.94 · St Albans Saints 0.96
Over / Under 3Under 3 · 53%
BTTSYes · 53%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Heidelberg Utd: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 14 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Heidelberg Utd | St Albans Saints | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.2 | 1.2 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.4 | 0.6 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4 / 7.7 | 2.7 / 6.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.1 / 0 | 2.9 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Heidelberg Utd 3–1–2 St Albans Saints
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/03/26 Australia NPL Victoria | St Albans Saints | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Heidelberg Utd |
| 30/05/25 Australia NPL Victoria | Heidelberg Utd | 2-2 HT 1-2 | St Albans Saints |
| 19/04/25 Australia FFA Cup Qualifying | St Albans Saints | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Heidelberg Utd |
| 23/02/25 Australia NPL Victoria | St Albans Saints | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Heidelberg Utd |
| 07/07/24 Australia NPL Victoria | St Albans Saints | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Heidelberg Utd |
| 05/04/24 Australia NPL Victoria | Heidelberg Utd | 6-0 HT 3-0 | St Albans Saints |
Standings · Australia NPL Victoria
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oakleigh Cannons | 18 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 40 | 17 | 40 |
| 2 | Hume City | 18 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 39 | 22 | 39 |
| 3 | Avondale | 18 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 51 | 22 | 34 |
| 4 | Heidelberg Utd | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 30 | 23 | 30 |
| 5 | Melbourne City FC 2 | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 32 | 20 | 26 |
| 6 | Preston Lions | 17 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 25 | 13 | 26 |
| 7 | Caroline Springs George Cross FC | 18 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 24 | 25 | 25 |
| 8 | South Melbourne | 18 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 28 | 32 | 25 |
| 9 | Dandenong City | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 26 | 25 | 21 |
| 10 | St Albans Saints | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 20 | 33 | 21 |
| 11 | Altona Magic | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 21 | 32 | 19 |
| 12 | Bentleigh Greens | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 39 | 16 |
| 13 | Dandenong Thunder | 18 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 20 | 41 | 12 |
| 14 | Green Gully | 18 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 10 | 39 | 7 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Heidelberg Utd | St Albans Saints |
|---|---|---|
| Oakleigh Cannons | 0-1 L | 2-2 D |
| Preston Lions | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Dandenong City | 1-4 L | 1-2 L |
| Dandenong Thunder | 4-2 W | 2-2 D |
| Bentleigh Greens | 2-0 W | 4-2 W |
| Green Gully | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 3 L | 2 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: St Albans Saints (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Heidelberg Utd
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Brunswick Juventus Australia Cup Qualifying |
2-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 26/06 | Oakleigh Cannons Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 20/06 | Preston Lions Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 05/06 | Dandenong City Australia NPL Victoria |
0-2 | 1-4 | 12 | 0 | L |
| 29/05 | Dandenong Thunder Australia NPL Victoria |
1-0 | 4-2 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 26/05 | Bentleigh Greens Australia Cup Qualifying |
2-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 22/05 | Green Gully Australia NPL Victoria |
1-0 | 1-0 | 13 | 2 | W |
| 15/05 | Bentleigh Greens Australia NPL Victoria |
0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 08/05 | South Melbourne Australia NPL Victoria |
3-0 | 4-0 | 12 | 3 | W |
| 02/05 | Hume City Australia NPL Victoria |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
St Albans Saints
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | Melbourne City FC 2 Australia NPL Victoria |
0-1 | 0-2 | 12 | 3 | L |
| 21/06 | Altona Magic Australia NPL Victoria |
1-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 05/06 | Oakleigh Cannons Australia NPL Victoria |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 31/05 | Preston Lions Australia NPL Victoria |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 22/05 | Dandenong City Australia NPL Victoria |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 16/05 | Dandenong Thunder Australia NPL Victoria |
1-0 | 2-2 | 12 | 2 | D |
| 12/05 | Oakleigh Cannons Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-0 | 0-2 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 08/05 | Green Gully Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 01/05 | Bentleigh Greens Australia NPL Victoria |
3-1 | 4-2 | 0 | 3 | W |
| 28/04 | FC Melbourne Srbija Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |