Football · Australia NPL Victoria · 04/07, 06:00
Hume City vs Dandenong City
Expected goals: 2.85 (Hume City 1.68 · Dandenong City 1.17). The model gives 48% home, 26% draw, 25% away. Over 2.75 goals (50%) and both teams to score (55%). Most likely score: 1-1.
48%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hume City 1597 · Dandenong City 1522
| Hume City | Draw | Dandenong City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 26% | 25% |
| Market | 48% | 26% | 26% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.85 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.85Hume City 1.68 · Dandenong City 1.17
Over / Under 2.75Over 2.75 · 50%
BTTSYes · 55%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hume City (rating 1597 vs 1522).
- H2H favours Hume City: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Hume City | Dandenong City | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.7 / 1.1 | 1.5 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.6 | 0.7 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/20/20% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 5.1 | 2.1 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.6 / 0 | 3.2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Hume City 3–2–1 Dandenong City
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/03/26 Australia NPL Victoria | Dandenong City | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Hume City |
| 06/06/25 Australia NPL Victoria | Hume City | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Dandenong City |
| 28/02/25 Australia NPL Victoria | Dandenong City | 1-3 HT 1-0 | Hume City |
| 12/07/24 Australia NPL Victoria | Dandenong City | 2-4 HT 0-2 | Hume City |
| 13/04/24 Australia NPL Victoria | Hume City | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Dandenong City |
| 04/06/22 Australia Victoria Premier League | Hume City | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Dandenong City |
Standings · Australia NPL Victoria
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oakleigh Cannons | 18 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 40 | 17 | 40 |
| 2 | Hume City | 18 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 39 | 22 | 39 |
| 3 | Avondale | 18 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 51 | 22 | 34 |
| 4 | Heidelberg Utd | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 30 | 23 | 30 |
| 5 | Melbourne City FC 2 | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 32 | 20 | 26 |
| 6 | Preston Lions | 17 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 25 | 13 | 26 |
| 7 | Caroline Springs George Cross FC | 18 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 24 | 25 | 25 |
| 8 | South Melbourne | 18 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 28 | 32 | 25 |
| 9 | Dandenong City | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 26 | 25 | 21 |
| 10 | St Albans Saints | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 20 | 33 | 21 |
| 11 | Altona Magic | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 21 | 32 | 19 |
| 12 | Bentleigh Greens | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 39 | 16 |
| 13 | Dandenong Thunder | 18 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 20 | 41 | 12 |
| 14 | Green Gully | 18 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 10 | 39 | 7 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Hume City | Dandenong City |
|---|---|---|
| Dandenong Thunder | 3-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Green Gully | 3-2 W | 2-1 W |
| Altona Magic | 3-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Avondale | 3-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Caroline Springs George Cross FC | 4-2 W | 2-3 L |
| Heidelberg Utd | 2-1 W | 4-1 W |
| Melbourne City FC 2 | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 7 W 0 D 0 L | 4 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Hume City (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hume City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Dandenong Thunder Australia NPL Victoria |
1-0 | 3-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 20/06 | Green Gully Australia NPL Victoria |
0-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 05/06 | Bentleigh Greens Australia NPL Victoria |
3-1 | 5-1 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 30/05 | South Melbourne Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 23/05 | Altona Magic Australia NPL Victoria |
2-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 16/05 | Avondale Australia NPL Victoria |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 09/05 | Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria |
3-2 | 4-2 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 02/05 | Heidelberg Utd Australia NPL Victoria |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 26/04 | Melbourne City FC 2 Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 21/04 | Brunswick Juventus Australia Victoria Cup |
0-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 3 | D |
Dandenong City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | Avondale Australia NPL Victoria |
2-0 | 3-1 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 20/06 | Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria |
0-3 | 2-3 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 05/06 | Heidelberg Utd Australia NPL Victoria |
2-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 30/05 | Melbourne City FC 2 Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 22/05 | St Albans Saints Australia NPL Victoria |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 15/05 | Oakleigh Cannons Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 08/05 | Preston Lions Australia NPL Victoria |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 02/05 | Altona Magic Australia NPL Victoria |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 24/04 | Dandenong Thunder Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 17/04 | Green Gully Australia NPL Victoria |
2-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 8 | W |