Football · Australia NPL Victoria · 04/07, 07:00

Avondale vs Preston Lions

Expected goals: 2.66 (Avondale 1.59 · Preston Lions 1.07). The model gives 49% home, 26% draw, 25% away. Under 2.75 goals (54%) and both teams to score (53%). Most likely score: 1-1.

49%1

49% 26% 25%

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Avondale 1534 · Preston Lions 1596

	Avondale	Draw	Preston Lions
Our model	48%	27%	24%
Market	50%	25%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.66 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).

Model analysis

Expected goals2.66Avondale 1.59 · Preston Lions 1.07

Over / Under 2.75Under 2.75 · 54%

BTTSYes · 53%

Most likely total2 goals

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Preston Lions (rating 1534 vs 1596).
H2H favours Avondale: 2-3-1.
High corners: 13.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Avondale	Preston Lions
Goals for / against (FT)	3.3 / 1.1	1.7 / 0.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/0/40%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.9	3.3 / 7.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.1	2.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.60

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.2

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

How Bet365's odds have moved from when the line opened until now. It's market data, not a recommendation.

1X2

1 1.80 → 1.80 – 0%

X 3.60 → 3.60 – 0%

2 3.50 → 3.50 – 0%

Over/Under 2.75

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Both teams to score

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Avondale 2–3–1 Preston Lions

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/03/26 Australia NPL Victoria	Preston Lions	2-1 HT 0-0	Avondale
15/11/25 Australia Championship	Avondale	1-1 HT 0-0	Preston Lions
24/10/25 Australia Championship	Preston Lions	0-0 HT 0-0	Avondale
22/06/25 Australia NPL Victoria	Preston Lions	1-1 HT 1-0	Avondale
15/03/25 Australia NPL Victoria	Avondale	3-1 HT 1-0	Preston Lions
08/05/19 Australia FFA Cup	Preston Lions	0-2 HT 0-1	Avondale

Standings · Australia NPL Victoria

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Oakleigh Cannons	18	12	4	2	40	17	40
2	Hume City	18	12	3	3	39	22	39
3	Avondale	18	11	1	6	51	22	34
4	Heidelberg Utd	18	9	3	6	30	23	30
5	Melbourne City FC 2	17	7	5	5	32	20	26
6	Preston Lions	17	10	2	5	25	13	26
7	Caroline Springs George Cross FC	18	6	7	5	24	25	25
8	South Melbourne	18	8	1	9	28	32	25
9	Dandenong City	18	7	4	7	26	25	21
10	St Albans Saints	18	6	3	9	20	33	21
11	Altona Magic	18	5	4	9	21	32	19
12	Bentleigh Greens	18	4	4	10	17	39	16
13	Dandenong Thunder	18	3	3	12	20	41	12
14	Green Gully	18	1	4	13	10	39	7

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Avondale	Preston Lions
Dandenong City	1-3 L	1-0 W
Dandenong Thunder	11-0 W	1-0 W
Green Gully	2-0 W	4-0 W
Altona Magic	5-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Avondale

WWLWWLWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/06	Dandenong City Australia NPL Victoria	0-2	1-3	8	4	L
20/06	Dandenong Thunder Australia NPL Victoria	3-0	11-0	9	2	W
10/06	Midleton FC Republic of Ireland Munster Senior League	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
05/06	Green Gully Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
02/06	North Sunshine Eagles Australia Cup Qualifying	0-1	2-3	2	4	L
30/05	Bentleigh Greens Australia NPL Victoria	2-0	4-0	9	2	W
25/05	South Melbourne Australia NPL Victoria	2-0	4-0	6	0	W
16/05	Hume City Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	0-3	7	5	L
12/05	Brunswick City Australia Cup Qualifying	3-0	4-0	7	3	W
09/05	Altona Magic Australia NPL Victoria	2-1	5-1	1	4	W

Preston Lions

WDWWLLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/06	Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	2-0	8	3	W
20/06	Heidelberg Utd Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
31/05	St Albans Saints Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	1-0	10	4	W
27/05	Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia Cup Qualifying	2-0	6-0	8	0	W
24/05	Oakleigh Cannons Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-1	0	5	L
16/05	Altona Magic Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	0-1	7	1	L
08/05	Dandenong City Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	1-0	6	1	W
02/05	Dandenong Thunder Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	1-0	1	5	W
27/04	Keilor Park Australia Cup Qualifying	0-1	1-1	22	6	D
24/04	Green Gully Australia NPL Victoria	2-0	4-0	6	3	W