Football · Australia South Australia Premier League · 04/07, 11:45
Metrostars vs West Torrens Birkalla
Expected goals: 3.38 (Metrostars 2.18 · West Torrens Birkalla 1.2). The model gives 59% home, 21% draw, 20% away. Under 3.5 goals (53%) and both teams to score (57%). Most likely score: 1-1.
59%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Metrostars 1572 · West Torrens Birkalla 1533
| Metrostars | Draw | West Torrens Birkalla | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 22% | 19% |
| Market | 60% | 21% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.38 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.38Metrostars 2.18 · West Torrens Birkalla 1.2
Over / Under 3.5Under 3.5 · 53%
BTTSYes · 57%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Metrostars: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Metrostars | West Torrens Birkalla | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.1 / 1 | 1.9 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.7 / 0.4 | 0.3 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/30/10% | 20/20/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 5.2 | 3.3 / 6.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0 | 3.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Metrostars 4–1–1 West Torrens Birkalla
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/04/26 Australia South Australia Premier League | West Torrens Birkalla | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Metrostars |
| 05/07/25 Australia South Australia Premier League | Metrostars | 0-1 HT 0-1 | West Torrens Birkalla |
| 11/04/25 Australia South Australia Premier League | West Torrens Birkalla | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Metrostars |
| 31/05/23 Australia FFA Cup Qualifying | West Torrens Birkalla | 0-5 HT 0-3 | Metrostars |
| 30/07/22 Australia South Australia Premier League | Metrostars | 3-0 HT 2-0 | West Torrens Birkalla |
| 30/04/22 Australia South Australia Premier League | West Torrens Birkalla | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Metrostars |
Standings · Australia South Australia Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | West Torrens Birkalla | 16 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 34 | 21 | 35 |
| 2 | Metrostars | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 45 | 17 | 34 |
| 3 | Adelaide City | 16 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 31 | 14 | 32 |
| 4 | White City FK Beograd | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 30 | 19 | 27 |
| 5 | Playford | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 35 | 25 | 26 |
| 6 | Croydon FC | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 34 | 29 | 24 |
| 7 | Adelaide United NPL | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 24 | 21 |
| 8 | West Adelaide | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 33 | 33 | 18 |
| 9 | Sturt Lions | 16 | 6 | 0 | 10 | 29 | 30 | 18 |
| 10 | Campbelltown City | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 27 | 29 | 18 |
| 11 | Adelaide Comets | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 30 | 13 |
| 12 | Para Hills Knights | 16 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 7 | 74 | 1 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Metrostars | West Torrens Birkalla |
|---|---|---|
| Sturt Lions | 1-0 W | 4-1 W |
| White City FK Beograd | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Campbelltown City | 4-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Croydon FC | 3-2 W | 1-0 W |
| Adelaide Comets | 0-0 D | 4-1 W |
| Adelaide United NPL | 6-1 W | 0-3 L |
| West Adelaide | 3-3 D | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 5 W 2 D 0 L | 5 W 0 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Metrostars
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Para Hills Knights Australia South Australia Premier League |
4-0 | 9-0 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 20/06 | Adelaide City Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 13/06 | Sturt Lions Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 06/06 | White City FK Beograd Australia South Australia Premier League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 30/05 | Campbelltown City Australia South Australia Premier League |
3-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 23/05 | Croydon FC Australia South Australia Premier League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 16/05 | Adelaide Comets Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 09/05 | Adelaide United NPL Australia South Australia Premier League |
4-1 | 6-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 02/05 | West Adelaide Australia South Australia Premier League |
1-1 | 3-3 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 18/04 | White City FK Beograd Australia South Australia Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
West Torrens Birkalla
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | Sturt Lions Australia South Australia Premier League |
2-1 | 4-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 20/06 | White City FK Beograd Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 17/06 | White City FK Beograd Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-2 | 0-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 12/06 | Campbelltown City Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 05/06 | Croydon FC Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 29/05 | Adelaide Comets Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-1 | 4-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 23/05 | Adelaide United NPL Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 19/05 | Fulham United FC Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-1 | 3-3 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 16/05 | West Adelaide Australia South Australia Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 08/05 | Playford Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-2 | 3-3 | 14 | 6 | D |