Prediction: Sturt Lions vs Playford
Expected goals: 3.63 (Sturt Lions 1.64 · Playford 1.98). The model gives 31% home, 24% draw, 45% away. Under 3.5 goals (51%) and both teams to score (60%). Most likely score: 1-1.
On recent form, Sturt Lions is 2-0-8 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and Playford 3-4-3 over its own. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Sturt Lions won 3 and Playford 2, with 1 draw.
| Sturt Lions | Draw | Playford | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 23% | 45% |
| Market | 31% | 24% | 45% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Playford (rating 1438 vs 1487).
- H2H favours Sturt Lions: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sturt Lions | Playford | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 2.1 | 2.1 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 1.1 | 0.7 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/30/60% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4.9 | 2.5 / 5.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.1 | 2.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sturt Lions 3–1–2 Playford
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 Australia South Australia Premier League | Playford | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Sturt Lions |
| 02/04/26 Australia Cup Qualifying | Playford | 2-4 HT 0-1 | Sturt Lions |
| 15/06/24 Australia South Australia State League 1 | Sturt Lions | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Playford |
| 23/03/24 Australia South Australia State League 1 | Playford | 4-1 HT 1-1 | Sturt Lions |
| 19/09/20 Australia South Australia State League 1 | Playford | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Sturt Lions |
| 01/08/20 Australia South Australia State League 1 | Sturt Lions | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Playford |
Standings · Australia South Australia Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | West Torrens Birkalla | 16 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 34 | 21 | 35 |
| 2 | Metrostars | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 45 | 17 | 34 |
| 3 | Adelaide City | 16 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 31 | 14 | 32 |
| 4 | White City FK Beograd | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 30 | 19 | 27 |
| 5 | Playford | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 35 | 25 | 26 |
| 6 | Croydon FC | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 34 | 29 | 24 |
| 7 | Adelaide United NPL | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 24 | 21 |
| 8 | West Adelaide | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 33 | 33 | 18 |
| 9 | Sturt Lions | 16 | 6 | 0 | 10 | 29 | 30 | 18 |
| 10 | Campbelltown City | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 27 | 29 | 18 |
| 11 | Adelaide Comets | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 30 | 13 |
| 12 | Para Hills Knights | 16 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 7 | 74 | 1 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sturt Lions | Playford |
|---|---|---|
| West Torrens Birkalla | 1-4 L | 3-3 D |
| Para Hills Knights | 6-0 W | 8-1 W |
| Adelaide City | 1-4 L | 0-0 D |
| White City FK Beograd | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Campbelltown City | 0-2 L | 4-1 W |
| Croydon FC | 0-2 L | 1-4 L |
| Adelaide Comets | 1-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Adelaide United NPL | 2-3 L | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 6 L | 2 W 4 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Playford (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sturt Lions
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | West Torrens Birkalla Australia South Australia Premier League |
1-2 | 1-4 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 20/06 | Para Hills Knights Australia South Australia Premier League |
4-0 | 6-0 | 11 | 1 | W |
| 13/06 | Metrostars Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 05/06 | Adelaide City Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-2 | 1-4 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 30/05 | White City FK Beograd Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 23/05 | Campbelltown City Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 16/05 | Croydon FC Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 08/05 | Adelaide Comets Australia South Australia Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | Adelaide United NPL Australia South Australia Premier League |
1-2 | 2-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 25/04 | Para Hills Knights Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-2 | 0-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
Playford
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | White City FK Beograd Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 20/06 | Campbelltown City Australia South Australia Premier League |
1-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 13/06 | Croydon FC Australia South Australia Premier League |
1-2 | 1-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 06/06 | Adelaide Comets Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 30/05 | Adelaide United NPL Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 23/05 | West Adelaide Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-1 | 1-4 | 16 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | Adelaide City Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 08/05 | West Torrens Birkalla Australia South Australia Premier League |
2-0 | 3-3 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 02/05 | Para Hills Knights Australia South Australia Premier League |
2-1 | 8-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 17/04 | Adelaide Comets Australia South Australia Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sturt Lions vs Playford?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Playford win (45%). Probabilities: Sturt Lions 31%, draw 24%, Playford 45%.
How many goals are expected in Sturt Lions vs Playford?
The model expects 3.63 goals (Sturt Lions 1.64 · Playford 1.98), with a 51% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Sturt Lions vs Playford?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.