Prediction: Caloundra vs Samford Rangers
Expected goals: 4.39 (Caloundra 2.94 · Samford Rangers 1.46). The model gives 67% home, 17% draw, 16% away. Over 4.25 goals (51%) and both teams to score (61%). Most likely score: 2-1.
On recent form, Caloundra is 4-1-5 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and Samford Rangers 1-0-9 over its own. In their only recent head-to-head meeting the record reads 0 wins for Caloundra and 1 for Samford Rangers.
| Caloundra | Draw | Samford Rangers | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 67% | 17% | 16% |
| Market | 67% | 16% | 16% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Caloundra (rating 1467 vs 1402).
- High corners: 12.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Caloundra | Samford Rangers | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 2.8 | 1.1 / 3.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 1.3 | 0.5 / 1.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 20/20/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4.7 / 7.2 | 1.6 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0.2 | 3.1 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Caloundra 0–0–1 Samford Rangers
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/03/26 Australia Queensland Premier League 2 | Samford Rangers | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Caloundra |
Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grange Thistle | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 35 | 19 | 31 |
| 2 | SWQ Thunder | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 31 | 16 | 29 |
| 3 | Moreton City Excelsior B | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 43 | 19 | 28 |
| 4 | Virginia United | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 19 | 23 |
| 5 | Pine Hills | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 28 | 25 | 22 |
| 6 | Caloundra | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 36 | 39 | 22 |
| 7 | Souths United | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 25 | 29 | 22 |
| 8 | Taringa Rovers | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 24 | 30 | 19 |
| 9 | Mitchelton FC | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 31 | 34 | 17 |
| 10 | Southside Eagles | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 26 | 33 | 17 |
| 11 | Brisbane Knights | 15 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 26 | 37 | 16 |
| 12 | Samford Rangers | 15 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 16 | 41 | 10 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Caloundra | Samford Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Knights | 2-6 L | 1-0 W |
| Mitchelton FC | 2-6 L | 0-1 L |
| Pine Hills | 0-1 L | 1-5 L |
| Moreton City Excelsior B | 2-1 W | 2-8 L |
| Virginia United | 4-3 W | 1-2 L |
| Grange Thistle | 2-2 D | 0-2 L |
| Taringa Rovers | 2-0 W | 1-5 L |
| Southside Eagles | 4-2 W | 1-2 L |
| SWQ Thunder | 3-5 L | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 4 L | 1 W 0 D 8 L |
Better against common opponents: Caloundra (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Caloundra
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Brisbane Knights Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
1-3 | 2-6 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 21/06 | Mitchelton FC Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
1-2 | 2-6 | 11 | 4 | L |
| 13/06 | Pine Hills Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 06/06 | Moreton City Excelsior B Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
2-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 24/05 | Virginia United Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
2-2 | 4-3 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | Grange Thistle Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 09/05 | Taringa Rovers Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 29/04 | North Star Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | Southside Eagles Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
2-1 | 4-2 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 18/04 | SWQ Thunder Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
2-3 | 3-5 | – | – | L |
Samford Rangers
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Pine Hills Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-4 | 1-5 | – | – | L |
| 13/06 | Moreton City Excelsior B Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
1-3 | 2-8 | – | – | L |
| 09/06 | Virginia United Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 06/06 | Brisbane Knights Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 24/05 | Grange Thistle Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 17/05 | Taringa Rovers Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-3 | 1-5 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 03/05 | SWQ Thunder Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
1-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 25/04 | Souths United Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
2-0 | 3-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 18/04 | Southside Eagles Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 11/04 | Mitchelton FC Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Caloundra vs Samford Rangers?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Caloundra win (67%). Probabilities: Caloundra 67%, draw 17%, Samford Rangers 16%.
How many goals are expected in Caloundra vs Samford Rangers?
The model expects 4.39 goals (Caloundra 2.94 · Samford Rangers 1.46), with a 51% chance of over 4.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Caloundra vs Samford Rangers?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.