Football · Australia Queensland Premier League · 03/07, 12:30

Caboolture FC vs Sunshine Coast Wanderers

Expected goals: 3.78 (Caboolture FC 1.86 · Sunshine Coast Wanderers 1.92). The model gives 38% home, 23% draw, 40% away. Over 3.5 goals (51%) and both teams to score (61%). Most likely score: 1-1.

40%2

38% 23% 40%

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Caboolture FC 1538 · Sunshine Coast Wanderers 1525

	Caboolture FC	Draw	Sunshine Coast Wanderers
Our model	37%	23%	40%
Market	38%	22%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 3.78 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).

Model analysis

Expected goals3.78Caboolture FC 1.86 · Sunshine Coast Wanderers 1.92

Over / Under 3.5Over 3.5 · 51%

BTTSYes · 61%

Most likely total3 goals

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Caboolture FC	Sunshine Coast Wanderers
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 1.7	2.5 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.7	1.1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 3.3	3.1 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.4	2.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.38

X4.00

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.98

2 (0)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.93

Under 3.51.88

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 4

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

How Bet365's odds have moved from when the line opened until now. It's market data, not a recommendation.

1X2

1 2.38 → 2.38 – 0%

X 4.00 → 4.00 – 0%

2 2.25 → 2.25 – 0%

Over/Under 3.5

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Caboolture FC 1–0–0 Sunshine Coast Wanderers

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/03/26 Australia Queensland Premier League	Sunshine Coast Wanderers	1-2 HT 0-0	Caboolture FC

Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Broadbeach United	16	14	2	0	46	15	44
2	Brisbane Strikers	16	12	3	1	39	12	39
3	Ipswich FC	16	8	3	5	24	21	27
4	Sunshine Coast Wanderers	16	7	5	4	34	21	26
5	Caboolture FC	16	8	2	6	33	28	26
6	Robina City	16	7	3	6	28	20	24
7	Holland Park Hawks	16	7	1	8	26	30	22
8	Redlands United	16	6	3	7	32	30	21
9	Logan Lightning	16	6	2	8	28	30	20
10	North Star	16	3	2	11	15	35	11
11	St George Willawong FC	16	2	1	13	8	39	7
12	Capalaba FC	16	2	1	13	16	48	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Caboolture FC	Sunshine Coast Wanderers
Logan Lightning	3-1 W	5-2 W
Brisbane Strikers	1-2 L	0-3 L
Ipswich FC	1-2 L	1-1 D
Capalaba FC	2-1 W	5-0 W
Robina City	1-0 W	0-0 D
North Star	2-3 L	1-0 W
Holland Park Hawks	5-3 W	2-3 L
Broadbeach United	2-3 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 4 L	3 W 2 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Caboolture FC

LWWLWWWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/06	Logan Lightning Australia Queensland Premier League	1-1	3-1	2	2	W
19/06	Brisbane Strikers Australia Queensland Premier League	1-1	1-2	3	10	L
06/06	Ipswich FC Australia Queensland Premier League	1-0	1-2	1	4	L
30/05	Capalaba FC Australia Queensland Premier League	1-0	2-1	7	4	W
26/05	AC Carina Australia Cup Qualifying	2-0	4-0	3	2	W
24/05	Robina City Australia Queensland Premier League	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
15/05	North Star Australia Queensland Premier League	0-1	2-3	1	0	L
09/05	Holland Park Hawks Australia Queensland Premier League	2-1	5-3	5	7	W
25/04	Redlands United Australia Queensland Premier League	1-2	4-2	3	5	W
11/04	Broadbeach United Australia Queensland Premier League	1-1	2-3	5	6	L

Sunshine Coast Wanderers

WLWDLLWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/06	Robina City Australia Queensland Premier League	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
20/06	Capalaba FC Australia Queensland Premier League	1-0	5-0	8	3	W
06/06	North Star Australia Queensland Premier League	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
03/06	St George Willawong FC Australia Queensland Premier League	3-0	8-0	8	1	W
23/05	Holland Park Hawks Australia Queensland Premier League	1-1	2-3	2	1	L
09/05	Broadbeach United Australia Queensland Premier League	0-0	0-3	5	6	L
25/04	Ipswich FC Australia Queensland Premier League	1-0	1-1	6	2	D
19/04	Logan Lightning Australia Queensland Premier League	2-0	5-2	7	0	W
11/04	Brisbane Strikers Australia Queensland Premier League	0-1	0-3	7	7	L
02/04	Taringa Rovers Australia Cup Qualifying	2-1	3-1	6	4	W