Football · Australia Queensland Premier League · 03/07, 12:30
Ipswich FC vs Holland Park Hawks
Expected goals: 3.57 (Ipswich FC 2.26 · Holland Park Hawks 1.31). The model gives 58% home, 21% draw, 21% away. Under 3.5 goals (52%) and both teams to score (58%). Most likely score: 2-1.
58%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ipswich FC 1531 · Holland Park Hawks 1472
| Ipswich FC | Draw | Holland Park Hawks | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 21% | 21% |
| Market | 59% | 20% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.57 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.57Ipswich FC 2.26 · Holland Park Hawks 1.31
Over / Under 3.5Under 3.5 · 52%
BTTSYes · 58%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ipswich FC (rating 1531 vs 1472).
- H2H favours Ipswich FC: 2-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ipswich FC | Holland Park Hawks | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.6 | 1.7 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.5 | 0.6 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 20/20/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 5.7 | 2 / 3.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.2 | 3 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ipswich FC 2–1–0 Holland Park Hawks
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/03/26 Australia Queensland Premier League | Holland Park Hawks | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Ipswich FC |
| 12/07/25 Australia Queensland Premier League | Holland Park Hawks | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Ipswich FC |
| 28/06/25 Australia Queensland Premier League | Ipswich FC | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Holland Park Hawks |
Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broadbeach United | 16 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 46 | 15 | 44 |
| 2 | Brisbane Strikers | 16 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 39 | 12 | 39 |
| 3 | Ipswich FC | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 21 | 27 |
| 4 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 34 | 21 | 26 |
| 5 | Caboolture FC | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 33 | 28 | 26 |
| 6 | Robina City | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 28 | 20 | 24 |
| 7 | Holland Park Hawks | 16 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 26 | 30 | 22 |
| 8 | Redlands United | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 32 | 30 | 21 |
| 9 | Logan Lightning | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 28 | 30 | 20 |
| 10 | North Star | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 15 | 35 | 11 |
| 11 | St George Willawong FC | 16 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 8 | 39 | 7 |
| 12 | Capalaba FC | 16 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 16 | 48 | 7 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Ipswich FC | Holland Park Hawks |
|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Strikers | 0-1 L | 2-3 L |
| Redlands United | 0-5 L | 1-4 L |
| Robina City | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Caboolture FC | 2-1 W | 3-5 L |
| St George Willawong FC | 4-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Broadbeach United | 2-2 D | 0-1 L |
| Capalaba FC | 4-2 W | 2-1 W |
| Sunshine Coast Wanderers | 1-1 D | 3-2 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 3 L | 3 W 0 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Ipswich FC (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ipswich FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | Brisbane Strikers Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 20/06 | Redlands United Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-1 | 0-5 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 09/06 | Robina City Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 06/06 | Caboolture FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 24/05 | St George Willawong FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 16/05 | Broadbeach United Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 10/05 | Capalaba FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-1 | 4-2 | 11 | 5 | W |
| 06/05 | Virginia United Australia Cup Qualifying |
1-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 25/04 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 18/04 | North Star Australia Queensland Premier League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
Holland Park Hawks
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | Redlands United Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-3 | 1-4 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 23/06 | Logan Lightning Australia Queensland Premier League |
2-0 | 3-2 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 19/06 | St George Willawong FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 0 | 3 | W |
| 13/06 | Robina City Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 06/06 | Broadbeach United Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 23/05 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 16/05 | Brisbane Strikers Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 09/05 | Caboolture FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-2 | 3-5 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 05/05 | Lions FC Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 17/04 | Capalaba FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |