Football · Australia Queensland Premier League · 04/07, 10:00
Capalaba FC vs St George Willawong FC
Expected goals: 3.26 (Capalaba FC 1.47 · St George Willawong FC 1.79). The model gives 31% home, 24% draw, 45% away. Over 3.25 goals (50%) and both teams to score (58%). Most likely score: 1-1.
45%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Capalaba FC 1420 · St George Willawong FC 1422
| Capalaba FC | Draw | St George Willawong FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 25% | 44% |
| Market | 31% | 24% | 45% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.26 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.26Capalaba FC 1.47 · St George Willawong FC 1.79
Over / Under 3.25Over 3.25 · 50%
BTTSYes · 58%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Capalaba FC | St George Willawong FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 3.4 | 0.7 / 2.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 1.5 | 0.3 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/30/70% | 11/44/44% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.6 | 1.8 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.8 / 0.5 | 3 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Capalaba FC 1–1–1 St George Willawong FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/03/26 Australia Queensland Premier League | St George Willawong FC | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Capalaba FC |
| 03/08/24 Australia Queensland Premier League | Capalaba FC | 1-3 HT 0-1 | St George Willawong FC |
| 28/04/24 Australia Queensland Premier League | St George Willawong FC | 2-2 HT 2-0 | Capalaba FC |
Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broadbeach United | 16 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 46 | 15 | 44 |
| 2 | Brisbane Strikers | 16 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 39 | 12 | 39 |
| 3 | Ipswich FC | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 21 | 27 |
| 4 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 34 | 21 | 26 |
| 5 | Caboolture FC | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 33 | 28 | 26 |
| 6 | Robina City | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 28 | 20 | 24 |
| 7 | Holland Park Hawks | 16 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 26 | 30 | 22 |
| 8 | Redlands United | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 32 | 30 | 21 |
| 9 | Logan Lightning | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 28 | 30 | 20 |
| 10 | North Star | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 15 | 35 | 11 |
| 11 | St George Willawong FC | 16 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 8 | 39 | 7 |
| 12 | Capalaba FC | 16 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 16 | 48 | 7 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Capalaba FC | St George Willawong FC |
|---|---|---|
| Broadbeach United | 1-3 L | 1-4 L |
| Sunshine Coast Wanderers | 0-5 L | 0-8 L |
| Logan Lightning | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| Brisbane Strikers | 0-8 L | 0-2 L |
| Ipswich FC | 2-4 L | 0-4 L |
| North Star | 2-3 L | 2-0 W |
| Holland Park Hawks | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Redlands United | 2-1 W | 0-3 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 7 L | 1 W 1 D 6 L |
Better against common opponents: Capalaba FC (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Capalaba FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Broadbeach United Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 23/06 | Robina City Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-4 | 1-5 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 20/06 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-1 | 0-5 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 05/06 | Logan Lightning Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 30/05 | Caboolture FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 23/05 | Brisbane Strikers Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-3 | 0-8 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 10/05 | Ipswich FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-1 | 2-4 | 10 | 5 | L |
| 24/04 | North Star Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 17/04 | Holland Park Hawks Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 11 | 6 | L |
| 10/04 | Redlands United Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
St George Willawong FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | North Star Australia Queensland Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 19/06 | Holland Park Hawks Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 13/06 | Broadbeach United Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-1 | 1-4 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 07/06 | Redlands United Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 03/06 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-3 | 0-8 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 27/05 | Logan Lightning Australia Cup Qualifying |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 24/05 | Ipswich FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-0 | 0-4 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 10/05 | Logan Lightning Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 04/05 | Brisbane City Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-0 | 3-2 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 24/04 | Brisbane Strikers Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 5 | L |