Football · Australia Queensland Premier League · 04/07, 09:45
North Star vs Redlands United
Expected goals: 3.89 (North Star 1.61 · Redlands United 2.28). The model gives 26% home, 21% draw, 52% away. Under 3.75 goals (52%) and both teams to score (61%). Most likely score: 1-2.
52%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · North Star 1444 · Redlands United 1511
| North Star | Draw | Redlands United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 26% | 22% | 52% |
| Market | 26% | 21% | 52% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.89 goals · Bet365 line 3.75
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.89North Star 1.61 · Redlands United 2.28
Over / Under 3.75Under 3.75 · 52%
BTTSYes · 61%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Redlands United (rating 1444 vs 1511).
- Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| North Star | Redlands United | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 2 | 2.1 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 1.2 | 1.3 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/20/60% | 70/20/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.7 | 1.5 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0 | 3.1 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · North Star 0–0–1 Redlands United
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/03/26 Australia Queensland Premier League | Redlands United | 5-0 HT 3-0 | North Star |
Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broadbeach United | 16 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 46 | 15 | 44 |
| 2 | Brisbane Strikers | 16 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 39 | 12 | 39 |
| 3 | Ipswich FC | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 21 | 27 |
| 4 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 34 | 21 | 26 |
| 5 | Caboolture FC | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 33 | 28 | 26 |
| 6 | Robina City | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 28 | 20 | 24 |
| 7 | Holland Park Hawks | 16 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 26 | 30 | 22 |
| 8 | Redlands United | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 32 | 30 | 21 |
| 9 | Logan Lightning | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 28 | 30 | 20 |
| 10 | North Star | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 15 | 35 | 11 |
| 11 | St George Willawong FC | 16 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 8 | 39 | 7 |
| 12 | Capalaba FC | 16 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 16 | 48 | 7 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | North Star | Redlands United |
|---|---|---|
| St George Willawong FC | 0-2 L | 3-0 W |
| Broadbeach United | 1-3 L | 0-2 L |
| Brisbane Strikers | 1-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Logan Lightning | 1-3 L | 1-5 L |
| Caboolture FC | 3-2 W | 2-4 L |
| Robina City | 1-3 L | 2-2 D |
| Capalaba FC | 3-2 W | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 5 L | 1 W 2 D 4 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
North Star
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | St George Willawong FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 20/06 | Broadbeach United Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-3 | 1-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 06/06 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 02/06 | Brisbane Strikers Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 9 | L |
| 26/05 | Gold Coast United Australia Cup Qualifying |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 23/05 | Logan Lightning Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 15/05 | Caboolture FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 10/05 | Robina City Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 29/04 | Caloundra Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 24/04 | Capalaba FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 0 | W |
Redlands United
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Logan Lightning Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-3 | 1-5 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 26/06 | Holland Park Hawks Australia Queensland Premier League |
3-0 | 4-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 20/06 | Ipswich FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-0 | 5-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 07/06 | St George Willawong FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 23/05 | Broadbeach United Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 08/05 | Brisbane Strikers Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 25/04 | Caboolture FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
2-1 | 2-4 | 0 | 5 | L |
| 18/04 | Robina City Australia Queensland Premier League |
2-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 10/04 | Capalaba FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 02/04 | Capalaba FC Australia Cup Qualifying |
2-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 1 | L |