Football · Australia NPL Queensland · 04/07, 11:00
Eastern Suburbs vs Peninsula Power
Expected goals: 3.32 (Eastern Suburbs 1.6 · Peninsula Power 1.72). The model gives 35% home, 24% draw, 40% away. Under 3.5 goals (55%) and both teams to score (58%). Most likely score: 1-1.
40%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Eastern Suburbs 1532 · Peninsula Power 1606
| Eastern Suburbs | Draw | Peninsula Power | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 25% | 40% |
| Market | 36% | 24% | 41% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.32 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.32Eastern Suburbs 1.6 · Peninsula Power 1.72
Over / Under 3.5Under 3.5 · 55%
BTTSYes · 58%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Peninsula Power (rating 1532 vs 1606).
- H2H favours Peninsula Power: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Eastern Suburbs | Peninsula Power | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 1.2 | 2.9 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.7 | 1.1 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 60/30/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 3.9 | 3 / 6.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2 / 0 | 3.5 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Eastern Suburbs 1–1–4 Peninsula Power
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/02/26 Australia NPL Queensland | Peninsula Power | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Eastern Suburbs |
| 21/06/25 Australia NPL Queensland | Eastern Suburbs | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Peninsula Power |
| 22/03/25 Australia NPL Queensland | Peninsula Power | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Eastern Suburbs |
| 13/08/23 Australia NPL Queensland | Peninsula Power | 6-0 HT 3-0 | Eastern Suburbs |
| 06/05/23 Australia NPL Queensland | Eastern Suburbs | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Peninsula Power |
| 20/07/22 Australia NPL Queensland | Eastern Suburbs | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Peninsula Power |
Standings · Australia NPL Queensland
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Peninsula Power | 16 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 40 | 19 | 38 |
| 2 | Lions FC | 15 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 45 | 18 | 35 |
| 3 | Moreton City Excelsior | 16 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 42 | 23 | 32 |
| 4 | Eastern Suburbs | 16 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 31 | 23 | 28 |
| 5 | Gold Coast Knights | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 36 | 23 | 26 |
| 6 | Brisbane City | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 37 | 38 | 25 |
| 7 | Wynnum Wolves | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 28 | 33 | 24 |
| 8 | Brisbane Olympic FC | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 31 | 33 | 20 |
| 9 | Rochedale Rovers | 16 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 25 | 40 | 14 |
| 10 | Gold Coast United | 15 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 18 | 32 | 10 |
| 11 | Magic United | 16 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 18 | 49 | 10 |
| 12 | Brisbane Roar NPL | 16 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 21 | 41 | 9 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Eastern Suburbs | Peninsula Power |
|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Olympic FC | 1-2 L | 3-1 W |
| Gold Coast Knights | 1-4 L | 2-0 W |
| Brisbane City | 3-1 W | 4-1 W |
| Moreton City Excelsior | 0-0 D | 1-4 L |
| Brisbane Roar NPL | 3-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Gold Coast United | 2-1 W | 4-0 W |
| Rochedale Rovers | 6-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Magic United | 2-0 W | 3-2 W |
| Record vs common | 5 W 1 D 2 L | 7 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Peninsula Power (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Eastern Suburbs
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Brisbane Olympic FC Australia NPL Queensland |
1-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 23/06 | Gold Coast Knights Australia NPL Queensland |
0-3 | 1-4 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 20/06 | Brisbane City Australia NPL Queensland |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 16/06 | Wynnum Wolves Australia NPL Queensland |
0-1 | 2-1 | 11 | 0 | W |
| 05/06 | Moreton City Excelsior Australia NPL Queensland |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 24/05 | Brisbane Roar NPL Australia NPL Queensland |
1-0 | 3-1 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 10/05 | Gold Coast United Australia NPL Queensland |
2-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 25/04 | Rochedale Rovers Australia NPL Queensland |
3-0 | 6-1 | 0 | 1 | W |
| 18/04 | Magic United Australia NPL Queensland |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 11/04 | Brisbane Olympic FC Australia NPL Queensland |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
Peninsula Power
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Brisbane Roar NPL Australia NPL Queensland |
1-1 | 3-1 | 10 | 5 | W |
| 21/06 | Brisbane Olympic FC Australia NPL Queensland |
1-0 | 3-1 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 06/06 | Rochedale Rovers Australia NPL Queensland |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 30/05 | Gold Coast United Australia NPL Queensland |
1-0 | 4-0 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 23/05 | Magic United Australia NPL Queensland |
1-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 20/05 | Moggill Australia Cup Qualifying |
2-1 | 4-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 15/05 | Gold Coast Knights Australia NPL Queensland |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 08/05 | Brisbane City Australia NPL Queensland |
1-1 | 4-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 25/04 | Lions FC Australia NPL Queensland |
2-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 18/04 | Moreton City Excelsior Australia NPL Queensland |
0-1 | 1-4 | 4 | 5 | L |