Football · Australia NPL Queensland · 04/07, 11:30

Lions FC vs Brisbane Olympic FC

Expected goals: 3.74 (Lions FC 2.57 · Brisbane Olympic FC 1.17). The model gives 67% home, 18% draw, 15% away. Under 3.75 goals (52%) and both teams to score (58%). Most likely score: 2-1.

67%1

67% 18% 15%

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lions FC 1596 · Brisbane Olympic FC 1455

	Lions FC	Draw	Brisbane Olympic FC
Our model	67%	18%	15%
Market	67%	18%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 3.74 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).

Model analysis

Expected goals3.74Lions FC 2.57 · Brisbane Olympic FC 1.17

Over / Under 3.75Under 3.75 · 52%

BTTSYes · 58%

Most likely total3 goals

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lions FC (rating 1596 vs 1455).
H2H favours Lions FC: 5-0-1.
High corners: 13.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lions FC	Brisbane Olympic FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.7 / 1.1	1.9 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 8.8	2.2 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0	3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.33

X5.00

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.80

2 (+1.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.90

Under 3.751.90

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 4

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

How Bet365's odds have moved from when the line opened until now. It's market data, not a recommendation.

1X2

1 1.33 → 1.33 – 0%

X 5.00 → 5.00 – 0%

2 6.00 → 6.00 – 0%

Over/Under 3.75

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Both teams to score

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lions FC 5–0–1 Brisbane Olympic FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/05/26 Australia Cup Qualifying	Brisbane Olympic FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Lions FC
21/02/26 Australia NPL Queensland	Brisbane Olympic FC	2-1 HT 1-0	Lions FC
15/08/25 Australia NPL Queensland	Brisbane Olympic FC	0-3 HT 0-0	Lions FC
03/05/25 Australia NPL Queensland	Lions FC	2-1 HT 1-0	Brisbane Olympic FC
24/07/24 Australia Queensland Cup	Brisbane Olympic FC	1-2 HT 1-2	Lions FC
08/06/24 Australia NPL Queensland	Lions FC	3-2 HT 2-1	Brisbane Olympic FC

Standings · Australia NPL Queensland

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Peninsula Power	16	12	2	2	40	19	38
2	Lions FC	15	11	2	2	45	18	35
3	Moreton City Excelsior	16	10	2	4	42	23	32
4	Eastern Suburbs	16	9	1	6	31	23	28
5	Gold Coast Knights	14	8	2	4	36	23	26
6	Brisbane City	16	7	4	5	37	38	25
7	Wynnum Wolves	16	7	3	6	28	33	24
8	Brisbane Olympic FC	16	6	2	8	31	33	20
9	Rochedale Rovers	16	4	2	10	25	40	14
10	Gold Coast United	15	3	1	11	18	32	10
11	Magic United	16	3	1	12	18	49	10
12	Brisbane Roar NPL	16	3	0	13	21	41	9

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lions FC	Brisbane Olympic FC
Wynnum Wolves	6-2 W	1-2 L
Rochedale Rovers	2-1 W	1-3 L
Brisbane City	4-0 W	2-3 L
Magic United	5-3 W	2-0 W
Brisbane Roar NPL	3-1 W	5-1 W
Moreton City Excelsior	2-0 W	3-4 L
Peninsula Power	2-3 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	6 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Lions FC (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Lions FC

WLDWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/06	Wynnum Wolves Australia NPL Queensland	2-0	6-2	13	2	W
21/06	Rochedale Rovers Australia NPL Queensland	1-0	2-1	5	3	W
06/06	Brisbane City Australia NPL Queensland	3-0	4-0	8	4	W
31/05	Magic United Australia NPL Queensland	4-1	5-3	5	1	W
26/05	Brisbane Olympic FC Australia Cup Qualifying	0-0	1-0	12	1	W
15/05	Brisbane Roar NPL Australia NPL Queensland	1-1	3-1	7	5	W
09/05	Moreton City Excelsior Australia NPL Queensland	1-0	2-0	5	2	W
05/05	Holland Park Hawks Australia Cup Qualifying	1-0	1-1	7	3	D
25/04	Peninsula Power Australia NPL Queensland	1-2	2-3	13	5	L
19/04	Gold Coast United Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	1-0	13	0	W

Brisbane Olympic FC

WWLLLLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/06	Eastern Suburbs Australia NPL Queensland	2-1	2-1	3	3	W
21/06	Peninsula Power Australia NPL Queensland	0-1	1-3	7	4	L
05/06	Gold Coast Knights Australia NPL Queensland	1-1	2-5	4	0	L
31/05	Brisbane City Australia NPL Queensland	2-2	2-3	3	4	L
26/05	Lions FC Australia Cup Qualifying	0-0	0-1	2	1	L
22/05	Wynnum Wolves Australia NPL Queensland	0-1	1-2	6	4	L
16/05	Moreton City Excelsior Australia NPL Queensland	1-2	3-4	1	2	L
10/05	Rochedale Rovers Australia NPL Queensland	0-1	1-3	7	5	L
24/04	Magic United Australia NPL Queensland	1-0	2-0	10	3	W
19/04	Brisbane Roar NPL Australia NPL Queensland	1-0	5-1	1	5	W