Football · Australia NPL Queensland · 05/07, 07:45

Brisbane City vs Brisbane Roar NPL

Expected goals: 4.3 (Brisbane City 2.76 · Brisbane Roar NPL 1.54). The model gives 62% home, 19% draw, 19% away. Over 4 goals (50%) and both teams to score (61%). Most likely score: 2-1.

62%1

62% 19% 19%

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Brisbane City 1531 · Brisbane Roar NPL 1414

	Brisbane City	Draw	Brisbane Roar NPL
Our model	63%	18%	19%
Market	62%	19%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 4.3 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).

Model analysis

Expected goals4.3Brisbane City 2.76 · Brisbane Roar NPL 1.54

Over / Under 4Over 4 · 50%

BTTSYes · 61%

Most likely total4 goals

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Brisbane City (rating 1531 vs 1414).
H2H favours Brisbane City: 6-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Brisbane City	Brisbane Roar NPL
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 2.3	1.4 / 2.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1.2	0.8 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6	1.6 / 2.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.2	4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.44

X4.75

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.88

2 (+1.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 42.00

Under 41.80

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 4.5

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

How Bet365's odds have moved from when the line opened until now. It's market data, not a recommendation.

1X2

1 1.44 → 1.44 – 0%

X 4.75 → 4.75 – 0%

2 4.75 → 4.75 – 0%

Over/Under 4

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Both teams to score

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Brisbane City 6–0–0 Brisbane Roar NPL

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/02/26 Australia NPL Queensland	Brisbane Roar NPL	1-3 HT 0-1	Brisbane City
26/08/25 Australia NPL Queensland	Brisbane City	2-1 HT 2-1	Brisbane Roar NPL
18/05/25 Australia NPL Queensland	Brisbane Roar NPL	0-1 HT 0-1	Brisbane City
26/05/24 Australia NPL Queensland	Brisbane Roar NPL	2-3 HT 1-1	Brisbane City
24/02/24 Australia NPL Queensland	Brisbane City	1-0 HT 1-0	Brisbane Roar NPL
04/06/23 Australia NPL Queensland	Brisbane City	2-0 HT 1-0	Brisbane Roar NPL

Standings · Australia NPL Queensland

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Peninsula Power	16	12	2	2	40	19	38
2	Lions FC	15	11	2	2	45	18	35
3	Moreton City Excelsior	16	10	2	4	42	23	32
4	Eastern Suburbs	16	9	1	6	31	23	28
5	Gold Coast Knights	14	8	2	4	36	23	26
6	Brisbane City	16	7	4	5	37	38	25
7	Wynnum Wolves	16	7	3	6	28	33	24
8	Brisbane Olympic FC	16	6	2	8	31	33	20
9	Rochedale Rovers	16	4	2	10	25	40	14
10	Gold Coast United	15	3	1	11	18	32	10
11	Magic United	16	3	1	12	18	49	10
12	Brisbane Roar NPL	16	3	0	13	21	41	9

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Brisbane City	Brisbane Roar NPL
Magic United	5-3 W	1-2 L
Eastern Suburbs	1-3 L	1-3 L
Gold Coast United	2-0 W	4-1 W
Lions FC	0-4 L	1-3 L
Brisbane Olympic FC	3-2 W	1-5 L
Moreton City Excelsior	5-2 W	0-6 L
Peninsula Power	1-4 L	1-3 L
Wynnum Wolves	3-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 0 D 7 L

Better against common opponents: Brisbane City (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Brisbane City

DWLLWWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/06	Magic United Australia NPL Queensland	2-2	5-3	9	3	W
20/06	Eastern Suburbs Australia NPL Queensland	0-2	1-3	7	1	L
13/06	Gold Coast United Australia NPL Queensland	2-0	2-0	1	0	W
06/06	Lions FC Australia NPL Queensland	0-3	0-4	3	4	L
31/05	Brisbane Olympic FC Australia NPL Queensland	2-2	3-2	5	4	W
22/05	Moreton City Excelsior Australia NPL Queensland	3-1	5-2	4	7	W
08/05	Peninsula Power Australia NPL Queensland	1-1	1-4	5	1	L
04/05	St George Willawong FC Australia Cup Qualifying	0-0	2-3	9	4	L
26/04	Wynnum Wolves Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	3-0	9	4	W
19/04	Rochedale Rovers Australia NPL Queensland	0-1	2-2	8	6	D

Brisbane Roar NPL

WLLLLLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/06	Peninsula Power Australia NPL Queensland	1-1	1-3	1	5	L
20/06	Gold Coast United Australia NPL Queensland	2-1	4-1	3	3	W
06/06	Magic United Australia NPL Queensland	1-1	1-2	5	2	L
02/06	Wynnum Wolves Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	1-2	4	4	L
24/05	Eastern Suburbs Australia NPL Queensland	0-1	1-3	4	2	L
15/05	Lions FC Australia NPL Queensland	1-1	1-3	1	5	L
10/05	Gold Coast Knights Australia NPL Queensland	1-0	2-3	2	5	L
25/04	Moreton City Excelsior Australia NPL Queensland	0-3	0-6	4	2	L
19/04	Brisbane Olympic FC Australia NPL Queensland	0-1	1-5	0	5	L
12/04	Peninsula Power Australia NPL Queensland	2-1	2-1	5	9	W