Football · Australia NPL Queensland · 04/07, 08:15
Gold Coast Knights vs Moreton City Excelsior
Expected goals: 3.84 (Gold Coast Knights 1.87 · Moreton City Excelsior 1.97). The model gives 36% home, 23% draw, 40% away. Over 3.5 goals (53%) and both teams to score (61%). Most likely score: 1-1.
40%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gold Coast Knights 1519 · Moreton City Excelsior 1561
| Gold Coast Knights | Draw | Moreton City Excelsior | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 23% | 41% |
| Market | 36% | 24% | 40% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.84 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.84Gold Coast Knights 1.87 · Moreton City Excelsior 1.97
Over / Under 3.5Over 3.5 · 53%
BTTSYes · 61%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Moreton City Excelsior (rating 1519 vs 1561).
- H2H favours Moreton City Excelsior: 3-0-2.
- High corners: 14.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Gold Coast Knights | Moreton City Excelsior | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 1.5 | 2.6 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.6 | 0.9 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4.2 / 8.1 | 2.5 / 6.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.2 | 3.2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Gold Coast Knights 2–0–3 Moreton City Excelsior
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/02/26 Australia NPL Queensland | Moreton City Excelsior | 4-1 HT 2-0 | Gold Coast Knights |
| 15/08/25 Australia NPL Queensland | Moreton City Excelsior | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Gold Coast Knights |
| 02/05/25 Australia NPL Queensland | Gold Coast Knights | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Moreton City Excelsior |
| 02/08/24 Australia NPL Queensland | Gold Coast Knights | 2-5 HT 2-1 | Moreton City Excelsior |
| 27/04/24 Australia NPL Queensland | Moreton City Excelsior | 2-3 HT 1-1 | Gold Coast Knights |
Standings · Australia NPL Queensland
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Peninsula Power | 16 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 40 | 19 | 38 |
| 2 | Lions FC | 15 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 45 | 18 | 35 |
| 3 | Moreton City Excelsior | 16 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 42 | 23 | 32 |
| 4 | Eastern Suburbs | 16 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 31 | 23 | 28 |
| 5 | Gold Coast Knights | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 36 | 23 | 26 |
| 6 | Brisbane City | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 37 | 38 | 25 |
| 7 | Wynnum Wolves | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 28 | 33 | 24 |
| 8 | Brisbane Olympic FC | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 31 | 33 | 20 |
| 9 | Rochedale Rovers | 16 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 25 | 40 | 14 |
| 10 | Gold Coast United | 15 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 18 | 32 | 10 |
| 11 | Magic United | 16 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 18 | 49 | 10 |
| 12 | Brisbane Roar NPL | 16 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 21 | 41 | 9 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Gold Coast Knights | Moreton City Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| Rochedale Rovers | 1-4 L | 5-2 W |
| Eastern Suburbs | 4-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Brisbane Olympic FC | 5-2 W | 4-3 W |
| Peninsula Power | 0-2 L | 4-1 W |
| Brisbane Roar NPL | 3-2 W | 6-0 W |
| Wynnum Wolves | 4-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 2 L | 4 W 2 D 0 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gold Coast Knights
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | Rochedale Rovers Australia NPL Queensland |
1-1 | 1-4 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 23/06 | Eastern Suburbs Australia NPL Queensland |
3-0 | 4-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 19/06 | Magic United Australia NPL Queensland |
0-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 05/06 | Brisbane Olympic FC Australia NPL Queensland |
1-1 | 5-2 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 15/05 | Peninsula Power Australia NPL Queensland |
0-1 | 0-2 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 10/05 | Brisbane Roar NPL Australia NPL Queensland |
0-1 | 3-2 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 17/04 | Wynnum Wolves Australia NPL Queensland |
1-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 10/04 | Rochedale Rovers Australia NPL Queensland |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 5 | D |
| 28/03 | Brisbane Olympic FC Australia NPL Queensland |
0-0 | 0-1 | 13 | 6 | L |
| 20/03 | Eastern Suburbs Australia NPL Queensland |
2-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 8 | W |
Moreton City Excelsior
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Gold Coast United Australia NPL Queensland |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 20/06 | Wynnum Wolves Australia NPL Queensland |
0-1 | 2-2 | 10 | 4 | D |
| 16/06 | Rochedale Rovers Australia NPL Queensland |
2-0 | 5-2 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 05/06 | Eastern Suburbs Australia NPL Queensland |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 22/05 | Brisbane City Australia NPL Queensland |
1-3 | 2-5 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 16/05 | Brisbane Olympic FC Australia NPL Queensland |
2-1 | 4-3 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 09/05 | Lions FC Australia NPL Queensland |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 25/04 | Brisbane Roar NPL Australia NPL Queensland |
3-0 | 6-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 18/04 | Peninsula Power Australia NPL Queensland |
1-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 11/04 | Gold Coast United Australia NPL Queensland |
0-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 3 | W |