Football · Australia New South Wales Premier League · 04/07, 09:30
Sutherland Sharks vs Apia L Tigers
Expected goals: 3 (Sutherland Sharks 1.18 · Apia L Tigers 1.82). The model gives 24% home, 24% draw, 52% away. Under 3 goals (53%) and both teams to score (55%). Most likely score: 1-1.
52%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sutherland Sharks 1512 · Apia L Tigers 1573
| Sutherland Sharks | Draw | Apia L Tigers | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 23% | 25% | 51% |
| Market | 24% | 24% | 52% |
Estimated total (ours)
3 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3Sutherland Sharks 1.18 · Apia L Tigers 1.82
Over / Under 3Under 3 · 53%
BTTSYes · 55%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Apia L Tigers (rating 1512 vs 1573).
- H2H favours Apia L Tigers: 6-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sutherland Sharks | Apia L Tigers | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.3 | 1.6 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.5 | 0.7 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.4 | 2.7 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.3 / 0 | 3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sutherland Sharks 0–0–6 Apia L Tigers
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 Australia New South Wales Premier League | Apia L Tigers | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Sutherland Sharks |
| 17/08/25 Australia New South Wales Premier League | Apia L Tigers | 5-0 HT 2-0 | Sutherland Sharks |
| 03/05/25 Australia New South Wales Premier League | Sutherland Sharks | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Apia L Tigers |
| 07/07/24 Australia New South Wales Premier League | Apia L Tigers | 3-2 HT 0-2 | Sutherland Sharks |
| 30/03/24 Australia New South Wales Premier League | Sutherland Sharks | 0-7 HT 0-4 | Apia L Tigers |
| 24/06/23 Australia New South Wales Premier League | Apia L Tigers | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Sutherland Sharks |
Standings · Australia New South Wales Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marconi Stallions | 21 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 40 | 14 | 49 |
| 2 | Apia L Tigers | 21 | 15 | 3 | 3 | 43 | 23 | 48 |
| 3 | Sydney United 58 | 21 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 33 | 17 | 44 |
| 4 | Rockdale Ilinden FC | 21 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 35 | 30 | 35 |
| 5 | Sydney FC U21 | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 29 | 29 | 34 |
| 6 | Sutherland Sharks | 21 | 10 | 2 | 9 | 32 | 26 | 32 |
| 7 | Wollongong Wolves | 21 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 21 | 23 | 31 |
| 8 | NWS Spirit FC | 21 | 8 | 3 | 10 | 23 | 25 | 27 |
| 9 | SD Raiders | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 29 | 35 | 26 |
| 10 | Western Sydney Wanderers U21 | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 40 | 30 | 26 |
| 11 | Manly Utd | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 22 | 28 | 24 |
| 12 | St George City FA | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 19 | 32 | 24 |
| 13 | University NSW | 21 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 27 | 33 | 22 |
| 14 | St George Saints | 21 | 6 | 1 | 14 | 21 | 34 | 19 |
| 15 | Blacktown City | 21 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 27 | 38 | 18 |
| 16 | Sydney Olympic | 21 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 21 | 45 | 15 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sutherland Sharks | Apia L Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Blacktown City | 1-2 L | 3-1 W |
| Sydney United 58 | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| NWS Spirit FC | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| St George City FA | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Marconi Stallions | 2-4 L | 1-1 D |
| Manly Utd | 1-2 L | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 4 L | 4 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Apia L Tigers (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sutherland Sharks
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | University NSW Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 20/06 | Western Sydney Wanderers U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 13/06 | Blacktown City Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 06/06 | St George Saints Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 31/05 | Sydney United 58 Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 23/05 | NWS Spirit FC Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 16/05 | SD Raiders Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 09/05 | St George City FA Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 02/05 | Marconi Stallions Australia New South Wales Premier League |
2-1 | 2-4 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 28/04 | Manly Utd Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
Apia L Tigers
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Rockdale Ilinden FC Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 21/06 | Blacktown City Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 13/06 | Wollongong Wolves Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 06/06 | Manly Utd Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 30/05 | NWS Spirit FC Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 27/05 | Rockdale Ilinden FC Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 24/05 | Marconi Stallions Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 16/05 | St George City FA Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 09/05 | Sydney United 58 Australia New South Wales Premier League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 05/05 | Sydney University Australia Cup Qualifying |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 1 | W |