Football · Australia New South Wales Premier League · 05/07, 07:00
Marconi Stallions vs St George Saints
Expected goals: 3.01 (Marconi Stallions 2.24 · St George Saints 0.77). The model gives 71% home, 17% draw, 12% away. Under 3.5 goals (56%) and both teams to score (51%). Most likely score: 2-0.
71%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Marconi Stallions 1583 · St George Saints 1400
| Marconi Stallions | Draw | St George Saints | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 70% | 20% | 11% |
| Market | 72% | 15% | 13% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.01 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.01Marconi Stallions 2.24 · St George Saints 0.77
Over / Under 3.5Under 3.5 · 56%
BTTSYes · 51%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Marconi Stallions (rating 1583 vs 1400).
- H2H favours Marconi Stallions: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Marconi Stallions | St George Saints | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 0.4 | 0.9 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.3 | 0.2 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 56/22/22% | 10/20/70% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 5.4 | 2.5 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.4 | 3.4 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Marconi Stallions 3–2–1 St George Saints
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 Australia New South Wales Premier League | St George Saints | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Marconi Stallions |
| 15/06/25 Australia New South Wales Premier League | St George Saints | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Marconi Stallions |
| 01/03/25 Australia New South Wales Premier League | Marconi Stallions | 1-1 HT 1-0 | St George Saints |
| 03/08/24 Australia New South Wales Premier League | St George Saints | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Marconi Stallions |
| 27/04/24 Australia New South Wales Premier League | Marconi Stallions | 4-0 HT 2-0 | St George Saints |
| 27/08/17 Australia New South Wales League 2 | St George Saints | 3-2 HT 2-2 | Marconi Stallions |
Standings · Australia New South Wales Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marconi Stallions | 21 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 40 | 14 | 49 |
| 2 | Apia L Tigers | 21 | 15 | 3 | 3 | 43 | 23 | 48 |
| 3 | Sydney United 58 | 21 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 33 | 17 | 44 |
| 4 | Rockdale Ilinden FC | 21 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 35 | 30 | 35 |
| 5 | Sydney FC U21 | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 29 | 29 | 34 |
| 6 | Sutherland Sharks | 21 | 10 | 2 | 9 | 32 | 26 | 32 |
| 7 | Wollongong Wolves | 21 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 21 | 23 | 31 |
| 8 | NWS Spirit FC | 21 | 8 | 3 | 10 | 23 | 25 | 27 |
| 9 | SD Raiders | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 29 | 35 | 26 |
| 10 | Western Sydney Wanderers U21 | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 40 | 30 | 26 |
| 11 | Manly Utd | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 22 | 28 | 24 |
| 12 | St George City FA | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 19 | 32 | 24 |
| 13 | University NSW | 21 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 27 | 33 | 22 |
| 14 | St George Saints | 21 | 6 | 1 | 14 | 21 | 34 | 19 |
| 15 | Blacktown City | 21 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 27 | 38 | 18 |
| 16 | Sydney Olympic | 21 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 21 | 45 | 15 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Marconi Stallions | St George Saints |
|---|---|---|
| Blacktown City | 2-0 W | 1-2 L |
| University NSW | 1-0 W | 4-1 W |
| Wollongong Wolves | 1-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Apia L Tigers | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Sydney Olympic | 2-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Sutherland Sharks | 4-2 W | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 5 W 1 D 0 L | 1 W 0 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Marconi Stallions (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marconi Stallions
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Blacktown City Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 4 | W |
| 21/06 | University NSW Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 12/06 | Sydney FC U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 10 | D |
| 07/06 | Wollongong Wolves Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 30/05 | Rockdale Ilinden FC Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 24/05 | Apia L Tigers Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 16/05 | NWS Spirit FC Australia New South Wales Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 09/05 | Sydney Olympic Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 02/05 | Sutherland Sharks Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-2 | 4-2 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 29/04 | Sydney Olympic Australia Cup Qualifying |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
St George Saints
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Sydney Olympic Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 6 | L |
| 20/06 | Manly Utd Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 13/06 | University NSW Australia New South Wales Premier League |
2-0 | 4-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 06/06 | Sutherland Sharks Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 14 | 2 | L |
| 30/05 | St George City FA Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 24/05 | Wollongong Wolves Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 16/05 | Sydney United 58 Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 10/05 | Blacktown City Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 02/05 | Western Sydney Wanderers U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-3 | 0-4 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 26/04 | Apia L Tigers Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |