Football · Australia New South Wales Premier League · 05/07, 07:00
Blacktown City vs Sydney United 58
Expected goals: 2.42 (Blacktown City 0.89 · Sydney United 58 1.52). The model gives 22% home, 26% draw, 52% away. Under 2.75 goals (57%) and both teams to score (51%). Most likely score: 1-1.
52%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Blacktown City 1460 · Sydney United 58 1533
| Blacktown City | Draw | Sydney United 58 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 21% | 28% | 51% |
| Market | 23% | 24% | 53% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.42 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.42Blacktown City 0.89 · Sydney United 58 1.52
Over / Under 2.75Under 2.75 · 57%
BTTSYes · 51%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sydney United 58 (rating 1460 vs 1533).
- H2H favours Sydney United 58: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Blacktown City | Sydney United 58 | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.8 | 1.4 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 1 | 0.8 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 22/33/44% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 5.1 | 3.3 / 6.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.7 / 0.2 | 3.7 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Blacktown City 2–1–3 Sydney United 58
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/05/26 Australia Cup Qualifying | Blacktown City | 0-4 HT 0-3 | Sydney United 58 |
| 22/03/26 Australia New South Wales Premier League | Sydney United 58 | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Blacktown City |
| 13/08/25 Australia New South Wales Premier League | Sydney United 58 | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Blacktown City |
| 27/04/25 Australia New South Wales Premier League | Blacktown City | 3-2 HT 0-2 | Sydney United 58 |
| 07/07/24 Australia New South Wales Premier League | Sydney United 58 | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Blacktown City |
| 31/03/24 Australia New South Wales Premier League | Blacktown City | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Sydney United 58 |
Standings · Australia New South Wales Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marconi Stallions | 21 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 40 | 14 | 49 |
| 2 | Apia L Tigers | 21 | 15 | 3 | 3 | 43 | 23 | 48 |
| 3 | Sydney United 58 | 21 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 33 | 17 | 44 |
| 4 | Rockdale Ilinden FC | 21 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 35 | 30 | 35 |
| 5 | Sydney FC U21 | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 29 | 29 | 34 |
| 6 | Sutherland Sharks | 21 | 10 | 2 | 9 | 32 | 26 | 32 |
| 7 | Wollongong Wolves | 21 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 21 | 23 | 31 |
| 8 | NWS Spirit FC | 21 | 8 | 3 | 10 | 23 | 25 | 27 |
| 9 | SD Raiders | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 29 | 35 | 26 |
| 10 | Western Sydney Wanderers U21 | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 40 | 30 | 26 |
| 11 | Manly Utd | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 22 | 28 | 24 |
| 12 | St George City FA | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 19 | 32 | 24 |
| 13 | University NSW | 21 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 27 | 33 | 22 |
| 14 | St George Saints | 21 | 6 | 1 | 14 | 21 | 34 | 19 |
| 15 | Blacktown City | 21 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 27 | 38 | 18 |
| 16 | Sydney Olympic | 21 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 21 | 45 | 15 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Blacktown City | Sydney United 58 |
|---|---|---|
| Apia L Tigers | 1-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Sutherland Sharks | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Manly Utd | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Western Sydney Wanderers U21 | 3-3 D | 2-0 W |
| St George Saints | 2-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 1 L | 2 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Sydney United 58 (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Blacktown City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Marconi Stallions Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 21/06 | Apia L Tigers Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 13/06 | Sutherland Sharks Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 07/06 | Rockdale Ilinden FC Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 30/05 | Manly Utd Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 27/05 | Sydney United 58 Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-3 | 0-4 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 24/05 | Sydney Olympic Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 16/05 | Western Sydney Wanderers U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League |
2-2 | 3-3 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 10/05 | St George Saints Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 06/05 | St George City FA Australia Cup Qualifying |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
Sydney United 58
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | Sydney FC U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 21/06 | SD Raiders Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 12/06 | Manly Utd Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 06/06 | Western Sydney Wanderers U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 31/05 | Sutherland Sharks Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 16 | 1 | L |
| 27/05 | Blacktown City Australia Cup Qualifying |
3-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 23/05 | University NSW Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 16/05 | St George Saints Australia New South Wales Premier League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 13/05 | Manly Utd Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 09/05 | Apia L Tigers Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-2 | 1-2 | 8 | 6 | L |