Football · Australia New South Wales Premier League · 05/07, 07:00

Rockdale Ilinden FC vs NWS Spirit FC

Expected goals: 2.77 (Rockdale Ilinden FC 1.5 · NWS Spirit FC 1.27). The model gives 42% home, 26% draw, 31% away. Under 2.75 goals (51%) and both teams to score (55%). Most likely score: 1-1.

42%1

42% 26% 31%

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Rockdale Ilinden FC 1541 · NWS Spirit FC 1464

	Rockdale Ilinden FC	Draw	NWS Spirit FC
Our model	42%	28%	31%
Market	43%	26%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.77 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).

Model analysis

Expected goals2.77Rockdale Ilinden FC 1.5 · NWS Spirit FC 1.27

Over / Under 2.75Under 2.75 · 51%

BTTSYes · 55%

Most likely total2 goals

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Rockdale Ilinden FC (rating 1541 vs 1464).
H2H favours Rockdale Ilinden FC: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Rockdale Ilinden FC	NWS Spirit FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.1	0.8 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.2	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 5.6	2.1 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.2	3.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.50

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.3

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

How Bet365's odds have moved from when the line opened until now. It's market data, not a recommendation.

1X2

1 2.10 → 2.10 – 0%

X 3.50 → 3.50 – 0%

2 2.80 → 2.80 – 0%

Over/Under 2.75

Go premium to see every market's movement

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Rockdale Ilinden FC 3–2–1 NWS Spirit FC

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 Australia New South Wales Premier League	NWS Spirit FC	0-2 HT 0-0	Rockdale Ilinden FC
07/09/25 Australia New South Wales Premier League	NWS Spirit FC	1-1 HT 0-0	Rockdale Ilinden FC
19/07/25 Australia New South Wales Premier League	NWS Spirit FC	6-3 HT 4-0	Rockdale Ilinden FC
06/04/25 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Rockdale Ilinden FC	1-1 HT 1-1	NWS Spirit FC
17/07/24 Australia New South Wales Cup	Rockdale Ilinden FC	5-0 HT 3-0	NWS Spirit FC
06/07/24 Australia New South Wales Premier League	NWS Spirit FC	1-2 HT 1-0	Rockdale Ilinden FC

Standings · Australia New South Wales Premier League

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Marconi Stallions	21	15	4	2	40	14	49
2	Apia L Tigers	21	15	3	3	43	23	48
3	Sydney United 58	21	14	2	5	33	17	44
4	Rockdale Ilinden FC	21	11	2	8	35	30	35
5	Sydney FC U21	21	10	4	7	29	29	34
6	Sutherland Sharks	21	10	2	9	32	26	32
7	Wollongong Wolves	21	9	4	8	21	23	31
8	NWS Spirit FC	21	8	3	10	23	25	27
9	SD Raiders	21	7	5	9	29	35	26
10	Western Sydney Wanderers U21	21	7	5	9	40	30	26
11	Manly Utd	21	6	6	9	22	28	24
12	St George City FA	21	6	6	9	19	32	24
13	University NSW	21	6	4	11	27	33	22
14	St George Saints	21	6	1	14	21	34	19
15	Blacktown City	21	4	6	11	27	38	18
16	Sydney Olympic	21	4	3	14	21	45	15

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Rockdale Ilinden FC	NWS Spirit FC
Apia L Tigers	2-0 W	1-2 L
Sydney Olympic	4-0 W	3-0 W
SD Raiders	0-1 L	0-0 D
Blacktown City	2-1 W	0-1 L
Marconi Stallions	1-1 D	0-3 L
Sydney FC U21	3-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Rockdale Ilinden FC (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Rockdale Ilinden FC

WWLLLDWLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/06	Apia L Tigers Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	2-0	8	3	W
20/06	Sydney Olympic Australia New South Wales Premier League	3-0	4-0	6	1	W
14/06	SD Raiders Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	0-1	8	6	L
07/06	Blacktown City Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	2-1	6	3	W
30/05	Marconi Stallions Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	1-1	2	2	D
27/05	Apia L Tigers Australia Cup Qualifying	0-0	0-1	6	6	L
24/05	Western Sydney Wanderers U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-2	0-5	4	5	L
16/05	University NSW Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	0-2	7	4	L
13/05	Hakoah Sydney City East Australia Cup Qualifying	2-0	5-0	5	3	W
10/05	Sydney FC U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League	3-0	3-0	4	1	W

NWS Spirit FC

LWDLLLLWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/06	Wollongong Wolves Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-0	2-0	11	3	W
20/06	St George City FA Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	0-1	6	1	L
13/06	Sydney Olympic Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-0	3-0	7	5	W
05/06	Sydney FC U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	0-1	7	2	L
30/05	Apia L Tigers Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	1-2	6	5	L
23/05	Sutherland Sharks Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	0-1	8	3	L
16/05	Marconi Stallions Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-2	0-3	7	2	L
09/05	SD Raiders Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	0-0	6	7	D
02/05	Manly Utd Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	2-1	2	5	W
26/04	Blacktown City Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	0-1	1	3	L