Football · Finland Ykkosliiga · 03/07, 17:30

JaPS vs SJK II

Expected goals: 2.4 (JaPS 1.46 · SJK II 0.94). The model gives 49% home, 27% draw, 24% away. Under 2.75 goals (53%) and both teams to score (51%). Most likely score: 1-1.

49%1

49% 27% 24%

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JaPS 1468 · SJK II 1416

	JaPS	Draw	SJK II
Our model	48%	29%	23%
Market	49%	26%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.4 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).

Model analysis

Expected goals2.4JaPS 1.46 · SJK II 0.94

Over / Under 2.75Under 2.75 · 53%

BTTSYes · 51%

Most likely total2 goals

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours JaPS (rating 1468 vs 1416).
H2H favours JaPS: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JaPS	SJK II
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.6	0.3 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4	2.1 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.2	3.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.50

23.75

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.91

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.3

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

How Bet365's odds have moved from when the line opened until now. It's market data, not a recommendation.

1X2

1 1.85 → 1.85 – 0%

X 3.50 → 3.50 – 0%

2 3.75 → 3.75 – 0%

Over/Under 2.75

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Both teams to score

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Head-to-head (H2H) · JaPS 2–3–1 SJK II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Finland Ykkosliiga	SJK II	0-2 HT 0-0	JaPS
28/09/25 Finland Ykkosliiga	SJK II	1-1 HT 0-1	JaPS
19/07/25 Finland Ykkosliiga	SJK II	4-1 HT 1-0	JaPS
25/05/25 Finland Ykkosliiga	JaPS	2-2 HT 0-1	SJK II
20/09/24 Finland Ykkosliiga	JaPS	2-1 HT 1-1	SJK II
02/06/24 Finland Ykkosliiga	JaPS	1-1 HT 1-0	SJK II

Standings · Finland Ykkosliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	KTP	12	9	1	2	18	10	28
2	PK-35	12	7	3	2	18	7	24
3	FC Haka	12	6	3	3	20	12	21
4	Jippo	12	5	5	2	14	7	20
5	Ekenäs IF	12	5	1	6	20	23	16
6	JaPS	12	5	1	6	11	19	16
7	KaPa	12	4	3	5	14	17	15
8	MP	12	4	1	7	10	14	13
9	Klubi-04	12	1	5	6	10	14	8
10	SJK II	12	1	3	8	4	16	6

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JaPS	SJK II
FC Haka	2-1 W	0-2 L
KTP	0-1 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: JaPS (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

JaPS

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/06	KaPa Finland Ykkosliiga	1-1	1-3	5	5	L
12/06	PK-35 Finland Ykkosliiga	0-1	0-5	3	0	L
05/06	FC Haka Finland Ykkosliiga	2-1	2-1	2	8	W
29/05	KaPa Finland Ykkosliiga	0-1	1-2	6	4	L
26/05	KuPS Kuopio Finland Cup	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
22/05	MP Finland Ykkosliiga	0-0	0-2	7	2	L
16/05	KTP Finland Ykkosliiga	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
13/05	HIFK 2 Finland Cup	1-1	3-1	3	6	W
09/05	SJK II Finland Ykkosliiga	0-0	2-0	4	2	W
02/05	PK-35 Finland Ykkosliiga	1-0	1-0	2	4	W

SJK II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/06	Klubi-04 Finland Ykkosliiga	0-1	0-2	11	7	L
15/06	FC Haka Finland Ykkosliiga	0-1	0-2	0	5	L
09/06	Jippo Finland Ykkosliiga	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
29/05	KTP Finland Ykkosliiga	0-1	0-1	3	2	L
26/05	SJK Finland Cup	0-3	0-5	–	–	L
22/05	FC Haka Finland Ykkosliiga	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
17/05	Ekenäs IF Finland Ykkosliiga	0-2	0-3	3	1	L
13/05	KPV Finland Cup	0-0	2-0	4	2	W
09/05	JaPS Finland Ykkosliiga	0-0	0-2	5	2	L
02/05	Klubi-04 Finland Ykkosliiga	0-0	1-1	3	5	D