Prediction: FC Naples vs Portland Hearts of Pine
Expected goals: 2.81 (FC Naples 1.51 · Portland Hearts of Pine 1.3). The model gives 41% home, 27% draw, 32% away. Over 2.5 goals (52%) and both teams to score (55%). Most likely score: 1-1.
On recent form, FC Naples is 1-1-8 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and Portland Hearts of Pine 3-2-5 over its own. In the last 4 head-to-head meetings the record reads 0 wins for FC Naples and 2 for Portland Hearts of Pine, with 2 draws.
| FC Naples | Draw | Portland Hearts of Pine | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 27% | 31% |
| Market | 42% | 26% | 32% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Portland Hearts of Pine (rating 1405 vs 1472).
- H2H favours Portland Hearts of Pine: 2-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FC Naples | Portland Hearts of Pine | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 2.2 | 1.7 / 2.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.9 | 0.7 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/20/60% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 4.9 | 2.2 / 3.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0 | 4.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Naples 0–2–2 Portland Hearts of Pine
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04/26 USA USL League One | Portland Hearts of Pine | 1-1 HT 1-0 | FC Naples |
| 21/09/25 USA USL League One | Portland Hearts of Pine | 1-0 HT 1-0 | FC Naples |
| 17/05/25 USA USL League One | Portland Hearts of Pine | 2-1 HT 1-0 | FC Naples |
| 30/03/25 USA USL League One | FC Naples | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Portland Hearts of Pine |
Standings · USA USL League One
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Union Omaha | 15 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 17 | 28 |
| 2 | One Knoxville SC | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 24 | 11 | 27 |
| 3 | Charlotte Independence | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 31 | 16 | 26 |
| 4 | Antelope Valley Alta | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 21 | 14 | 24 |
| 5 | Spokane Velocity FC | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 23 |
| 6 | AC Boise | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 21 | 21 |
| 7 | Fort Wayne FC | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 17 | 12 | 21 |
| 8 | Forward Madison FC | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 14 | 20 |
| 9 | FC Naples | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 16 | 23 | 17 |
| 10 | Portland Hearts of Pine | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 22 | 17 |
| 11 | Chattanooga Red Wolves | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 13 | 16 |
| 12 | Sarasota Paradise | 16 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 17 | 28 | 16 |
| 13 | Corpus Christi FC | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 17 | 23 | 15 |
| 14 | Westchester SC | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 23 | 20 | 14 |
| 15 | Richmond Kickers | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 24 | 11 |
| 16 | Greenville Triumph SC | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 21 | 10 |
| 17 | New York Cosmos | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 16 | 30 | 7 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FC Naples | Portland Hearts of Pine |
|---|---|---|
| Chattanooga Red Wolves | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Union Omaha | 1-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Westchester SC | 1-0 W | 1-5 L |
| Spokane Velocity FC | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 3 L | 1 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Portland Hearts of Pine (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FC Naples
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 14/06 | Charlotte Independence USA USL League One |
1-1 | 3-4 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 07/06 | Sarasota Paradise USA USL Cup |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 04/06 | Charlotte Independence USA USL League One |
0-3 | 1-5 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 31/05 | Union Omaha USA USL League One |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 24/05 | Westchester SC USA USL League One |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 17/05 | Sporting JAX USA USL Cup |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 14/05 | AC Boise USA USL League One |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 11/05 | Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 03/05 | One Knoxville SC USA USL League One |
0-1 | 0-3 | 8 | 4 | L |
Portland Hearts of Pine
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06 | Richmond Kickers USA USL League One |
1-1 | 5-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 20/06 | Westchester SC USA USL League One |
0-2 | 1-5 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 14/06 | Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 07/06 | Brooklyn FC USA USL Cup |
1-3 | 1-5 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 04/06 | Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One |
1-0 | 2-3 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 31/05 | Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One |
0-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 24/05 | Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 16/05 | Rhode Island FC USA USL Cup |
2-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 10/05 | Union Omaha USA USL League One |
2-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 07/05 | Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One |
0-0 | 0-3 | 3 | 8 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FC Naples vs Portland Hearts of Pine?
According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Naples win (41%). Probabilities: FC Naples 41%, draw 27%, Portland Hearts of Pine 32%.
How many goals are expected in FC Naples vs Portland Hearts of Pine?
The model expects 2.81 goals (FC Naples 1.51 · Portland Hearts of Pine 1.3), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in FC Naples vs Portland Hearts of Pine?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.