Football · USA USL League One · 02/07, 04:00

Spokane Velocity FC vs Forward Madison FC

Expected goals: 2.48 (Spokane Velocity FC 1.43 · Forward Madison FC 1.05). The model gives 45% home, 28% draw, 27% away. Under 2.5 goals (53%) and both teams to score (52%). Most likely score: 1-1.

45%1

45% 28% 27%

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Spokane Velocity FC 1504 · Forward Madison FC 1477

	Spokane Velocity FC	Draw	Forward Madison FC
Our model	45%	29%	26%
Market	46%	27%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.48 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).

Model analysis

Expected goals2.48Spokane Velocity FC 1.43 · Forward Madison FC 1.05

Over / Under 2.5Under 2.5 · 53%

BTTSYes · 52%

Most likely total2 goals

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Spokane Velocity FC	Forward Madison FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.4	1.6 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.1	3.1 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.1	5.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.30

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.02

2 (+0.5)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.6

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

How Bet365's odds have moved from when the line opened until now. It's market data, not a recommendation.

1X2

1 1.95 → 1.95 – 0%

X 3.30 → 3.30 – 0%

2 3.25 → 3.25 – 0%

Over/Under 2.5

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Spokane Velocity FC 2–1–2 Forward Madison FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/08/25 USA USL League One	Forward Madison FC	0-1 HT 0-1	Spokane Velocity FC
15/06/25 USA USL League One	Spokane Velocity FC	2-1 HT 1-0	Forward Madison FC
10/11/24 USA USL League One	Forward Madison FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Spokane Velocity FC
22/09/24 USA USL League One	Forward Madison FC	2-0 HT 1-0	Spokane Velocity FC
20/05/24 USA USL League One	Spokane Velocity FC	0-3 HT 0-2	Forward Madison FC

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Omaha	15	9	1	5	22	17	28
2	One Knoxville SC	13	8	3	2	24	11	27
3	Charlotte Independence	12	8	2	2	31	16	26
4	Antelope Valley Alta	14	6	6	2	21	14	24
5	Spokane Velocity FC	13	7	2	4	17	17	23
6	AC Boise	14	6	3	5	21	21	21
7	Fort Wayne FC	13	5	6	2	17	12	21
8	Forward Madison FC	12	6	2	4	21	14	20
9	FC Naples	15	5	2	8	16	23	17
10	Portland Hearts of Pine	14	4	5	5	21	22	17
11	Chattanooga Red Wolves	10	5	1	4	19	13	16
12	Sarasota Paradise	16	5	1	10	17	28	16
13	Corpus Christi FC	14	3	6	5	17	23	15
14	Westchester SC	13	4	2	7	23	20	14
15	Richmond Kickers	13	3	2	8	12	24	11
16	Greenville Triumph SC	11	3	1	7	11	21	10
17	New York Cosmos	12	2	1	9	16	30	7

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Spokane Velocity FC	Forward Madison FC
Antelope Valley Alta	0-1 L	0-2 L
AC Boise	2-1 W	5-1 W
Sarasota Paradise	1-0 W	3-1 W
Corpus Christi FC	0-0 D	3-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Forward Madison FC (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Spokane Velocity FC

LDWWWLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/06	Westchester SC USA USL League One	1-1	2-1	4	1	W
21/06	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	0-2	0-4	10	4	L
14/06	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
07/06	AC Boise USA USL Cup	0-0	2-1	4	4	W
31/05	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	1-0	1-2	5	2	L
25/05	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
18/05	Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Cup	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
11/05	FC Naples USA USL League One	1-0	2-1	6	2	W
03/05	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
26/04	Sacramento Republic USA USL Cup	0-2	0-4	2	8	L

Forward Madison FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/06	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	2-0	3-1	4	6	W
18/06	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	1-0	1-1	5	5	D
14/06	AC Boise USA USL League One	1-0	5-1	9	5	W
07/06	Indy Eleven USA USL Cup	0-0	0-2	1	6	L
04/06	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	0-1	0-1	3	7	L
30/05	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	2-0	3-0	7	4	W
24/05	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	1-2	1-3	5	5	L
17/05	Detroit City FC USA USL Cup	0-0	0-1	8	8	L
10/05	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	0-2	0-2	14	7	L
03/05	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	1-1	3-1	5	2	W