Football · USA USL Championship · 03/07, 02:00

Birmingham Legion FC vs Detroit City FC

Expected goals: 2.75 (Birmingham Legion FC 1.3 · Detroit City FC 1.45). The model gives 33% home, 28% draw, 40% away. Over 2.5 goals (52%) and both teams to score (55%). Most likely score: 1-1.

40%2

33% 28% 40%

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Birmingham Legion FC 1501 · Detroit City FC 1498

	Birmingham Legion FC	Draw	Detroit City FC
Our model	32%	28%	40%
Market	33%	27%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.75 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).

Model analysis

Expected goals2.75Birmingham Legion FC 1.3 · Detroit City FC 1.45

Over / Under 2.5Over 2.5 · 52%

BTTSYes · 55%

Most likely total2 goals

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Detroit City FC: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Birmingham Legion FC	Detroit City FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.4	1.8 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4	2.7 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.30

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.2

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

How Bet365's odds have moved from when the line opened until now. It's market data, not a recommendation.

1X2

1 2.75 → 2.75 – 0%

X 3.30 → 3.30 – 0%

2 2.25 → 2.25 – 0%

Over/Under 2.5

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Both teams to score

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Birmingham Legion FC 1–2–3 Detroit City FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/05/25 USA USL Championship	Birmingham Legion FC	1-1 HT 0-0	Detroit City FC
22/03/25 USA USL Championship	Detroit City FC	2-2 HT 2-1	Birmingham Legion FC
17/08/24 USA USL Championship	Birmingham Legion FC	0-1 HT 0-1	Detroit City FC
27/06/24 USA USL Championship	Detroit City FC	1-2 HT 1-0	Birmingham Legion FC
27/08/23 USA USL Championship	Birmingham Legion FC	2-3 HT 2-3	Detroit City FC
27/05/23 USA USL Championship	Detroit City FC	1-0 HT 1-0	Birmingham Legion FC

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	14	9	4	1	23	8	31
2	Charleston Battery	14	8	2	4	30	19	26
3	Detroit City FC	13	6	3	4	19	13	21
4	Louisville City FC	14	6	3	5	24	22	21
5	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	12	6	2	4	15	13	20
6	Indy Eleven	11	5	3	3	16	12	18
7	Hartford Athletic	12	4	6	2	10	10	18
8	Miami FC	14	4	5	5	17	23	17
9	Rhode Island FC	11	4	3	4	21	15	15
10	Birmingham Legion FC	13	2	7	4	14	16	13
11	Loudoun United FC	13	1	7	5	15	26	10
12	Brooklyn FC	13	2	3	8	13	24	9
13	Sporting JAX	14	0	3	11	17	39	3

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Birmingham Legion FC	Detroit City FC
Loudoun United FC	1-1 D	0-0 D
Louisville City FC	1-1 D	3-4 L
Miami FC	0-0 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Birmingham Legion FC

LWDWLDWLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/06	Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
17/06	Oakland Roots USA USL Championship	1-0	1-1	4	6	D
14/06	Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship	0-1	1-2	2	3	L
10/06	Corpus Christi FC USA USL Cup	2-0	3-0	6	5	W
04/06	Louisville City FC USA USL Championship	1-1	1-1	2	6	D
24/05	Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-2	4	4	L
17/05	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL Cup	0-0	4-3	3	5	W
08/05	Miami FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
03/05	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	1-1	3-1	4	3	W
26/04	San Antonio FC USA USL Cup	0-0	1-3	5	2	L

Detroit City FC

WLWWDLLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/06	Louisville City FC USA USL Cup	0-0	3-4	6	4	L
14/06	Sporting JAX USA USL Championship	3-1	6-2	3	6	W
11/06	El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship	0-1	1-1	10	4	D
07/06	Lexington SC USA USL Cup	1-0	2-4	3	8	L
31/05	Charleston Battery USA USL Championship	0-2	0-2	6	7	L
24/05	Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	5	8	D
21/05	Miami FC USA USL Championship	0-0	2-1	1	9	W
17/05	Forward Madison FC USA USL Cup	0-0	1-0	6	8	W
10/05	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	0-0	1-2	8	5	L
03/05	Louisville City FC USA USL Championship	1-1	2-1	6	3	W