Football · USA USL Championship · 04/07, 01:00
Loudoun United FC vs Sporting JAX
Expected goals: 3.17 (Loudoun United FC 2.02 · Sporting JAX 1.15). The model gives 57% home, 23% draw, 20% away. Over 3 goals (50%) and both teams to score (56%). Most likely score: 1-1.
57%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Loudoun United FC 1460 · Sporting JAX 1425
| Loudoun United FC | Draw | Sporting JAX | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 23% | 20% |
| Market | 57% | 23% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.17 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.17Loudoun United FC 2.02 · Sporting JAX 1.15
Over / Under 3Over 3 · 50%
BTTSYes · 56%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Loudoun United FC | Sporting JAX | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 2 | 1.6 / 3.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.8 | 0.9 / 1.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 40/0/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 4.1 | 1 / 3.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.9 / 0 | 4.1 / 0.2 |
Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Eastern Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 14 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 23 | 8 | 31 |
| 2 | Charleston Battery | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 30 | 19 | 26 |
| 3 | Detroit City FC | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 13 | 21 |
| 4 | Louisville City FC | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 22 | 21 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 13 | 20 |
| 6 | Indy Eleven | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 12 | 18 |
| 7 | Hartford Athletic | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 18 |
| 8 | Miami FC | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 17 | 23 | 17 |
| 9 | Rhode Island FC | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 21 | 15 | 15 |
| 10 | Birmingham Legion FC | 13 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 14 | 16 | 13 |
| 11 | Loudoun United FC | 13 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 15 | 26 | 10 |
| 12 | Brooklyn FC | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 24 | 9 |
| 13 | Sporting JAX | 14 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 17 | 39 | 3 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Loudoun United FC | Sporting JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Charleston Battery | 1-4 L | 2-5 L |
| Monterey Bay FC | 1-4 L | 1-2 L |
| Detroit City FC | 0-0 D | 2-6 L |
| Brooklyn FC | 1-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 2 L | 0 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Loudoun United FC (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Loudoun United FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06 | Charleston Battery USA USL Championship |
0-2 | 1-4 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 21/06 | Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 14/06 | Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 1-4 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 11/06 | Greenville Triumph SC USA USL Cup |
0-1 | 1-3 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 07/06 | Richmond Kickers USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 31/05 | Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship |
0-2 | 1-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 24/05 | Detroit City FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 8 | D |
| 10/05 | Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 02/05 | Oakland Roots USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 26/04 | Charleston Battery USA USL Cup |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
Sporting JAX
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Charleston Battery USA USL Championship |
1-3 | 2-5 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 14/06 | Detroit City FC USA USL Championship |
1-3 | 2-6 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 11/06 | Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 07/06 | Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Cup |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 01/06 | Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship |
1-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 28/05 | San Antonio FC USA USL Championship |
3-0 | 4-4 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 17/05 | FC Naples USA USL Cup |
1-0 | 2-4 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 14/05 | Sarasota Paradise USA USL Cup |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 10/05 | Indy Eleven USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 03/05 | Charleston Battery USA USL Championship |
0-3 | 0-4 | 2 | 7 | L |