Football · USA USL Championship · 04/07, 22:00

Indy Eleven vs Charleston Battery

Expected goals: 3.14 (Indy Eleven 1.52 · Charleston Battery 1.62). The model gives 35% home, 26% draw, 39% away. Over 2.5 goals (57%) and both teams to score (57%). Most likely score: 1-1.

39%2

35% 26% 39%

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Indy Eleven 1536 · Charleston Battery 1591

	Indy Eleven	Draw	Charleston Battery
Our model	35%	26%	39%
Market	35%	26%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 3.14 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).

Model analysis

Expected goals3.14Indy Eleven 1.52 · Charleston Battery 1.62

Over / Under 2.5Over 2.5 · 57%

BTTSYes · 57%

Most likely total3 goals

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Charleston Battery (rating 1536 vs 1591).
H2H favours Charleston Battery: 5-1-0.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Indy Eleven	Charleston Battery
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.7	3.2 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.4	1.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 5.6	2.1 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.1	5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.40

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.02

2 (0)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.77

Under 2.52.02

Diff.: 1.6 · xG: 4.1

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

How Bet365's odds have moved from when the line opened until now. It's market data, not a recommendation.

1X2

1 2.60 → 2.60 – 0%

X 3.40 → 3.40 – 0%

2 2.30 → 2.30 – 0%

Over/Under 2.75

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Both teams to score

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← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Indy Eleven 0–1–5 Charleston Battery

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/09/25 USA USL Championship	Charleston Battery	2-1 HT 1-0	Indy Eleven
20/04/25 USA USL Championship	Indy Eleven	1-3 HT 0-2	Charleston Battery
03/08/24 USA USL Championship	Charleston Battery	5-0 HT 0-0	Indy Eleven
14/04/24 USA USL Championship	Indy Eleven	2-4 HT 2-2	Charleston Battery
22/10/23 USA USL Championship	Charleston Battery	5-0 HT 3-0	Indy Eleven
13/07/23 USA USL Championship	Indy Eleven	1-1 HT 0-0	Charleston Battery

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	14	9	4	1	23	8	31
2	Charleston Battery	14	8	2	4	30	19	26
3	Detroit City FC	13	6	3	4	19	13	21
4	Louisville City FC	14	6	3	5	24	22	21
5	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	12	6	2	4	15	13	20
6	Indy Eleven	11	5	3	3	16	12	18
7	Hartford Athletic	12	4	6	2	10	10	18
8	Miami FC	14	4	5	5	17	23	17
9	Rhode Island FC	11	4	3	4	21	15	15
10	Birmingham Legion FC	13	2	7	4	14	16	13
11	Loudoun United FC	13	1	7	5	15	26	10
12	Brooklyn FC	13	2	3	8	13	24	9
13	Sporting JAX	14	0	3	11	17	39	3

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Indy Eleven	Charleston Battery
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	0-1 L	4-2 W
Sporting JAX	2-1 W	5-2 W
Tampa Bay Rowdies	0-1 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Charleston Battery (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Indy Eleven

DLLWWWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/06	Lexington SC USA USL Cup	0-0	7-6	3	4	W
14/06	Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
07/06	Forward Madison FC USA USL Cup	0-0	2-0	8	6	W
31/05	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
24/05	Lexington SC USA USL Championship	1-0	3-1	5	6	W
17/05	Fort Wayne FC USA USL Cup	1-1	5-3	7	6	W
10/05	Sporting JAX USA USL Championship	0-1	2-1	10	4	W
03/05	Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
26/04	Union Omaha USA USL Cup	0-1	1-2	8	4	L
19/04	Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship	0-1	2-2	2	3	D

Charleston Battery

WWWLWWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/06	Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship	2-0	4-1	5	4	W
21/06	Sporting JAX USA USL Championship	3-1	5-2	2	5	W
14/06	Tulsa USA USL Championship	3-1	5-1	3	4	W
11/06	Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship	0-1	2-2	3	6	D
07/06	Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Cup	0-0	4-2	10	4	W
31/05	Detroit City FC USA USL Championship	2-0	2-0	4	7	W
24/05	New Mexico United USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	6	7	L
17/05	Richmond Kickers USA USL Cup	2-0	4-0	6	4	W
03/05	Sporting JAX USA USL Championship	3-0	4-0	8	7	W
26/04	Loudoun United FC USA USL Cup	1-1	2-1	4	5	W