Football · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · 04/07, 20:00
CA Lugano vs JJ Urquiza
Expected goals: 1.84 (CA Lugano 1.16 · JJ Urquiza 0.68). The model gives 46% home, 33% draw, 21% away. Over 1.5 goals (54%) and not both to score (54%). Most likely score: 0-0.
46%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · CA Lugano 1519 · JJ Urquiza 1437
| CA Lugano | Draw | JJ Urquiza | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 34% | 20% |
| Market | 47% | 32% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.84 goals · Bet365 line 1.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals1.84CA Lugano 1.16 · JJ Urquiza 0.68
Over / Under 1.5Over 1.5 · 54%
BTTSNo · 54%
Most likely total1 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 78%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CA Lugano (rating 1519 vs 1437).
- H2H favours JJ Urquiza: 2-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 13 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| CA Lugano | JJ Urquiza | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.1 | 0.2 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.4 | 0 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 0/60/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 2.5 | 1.2 / 2.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.9 / 0.5 | 6.1 / 0.7 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · CA Lugano 1–2–2 JJ Urquiza
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/02/26 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana | JJ Urquiza | 0-2 HT 0-0 | CA Lugano |
| 16/09/25 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana | CA Lugano | 2-2 HT 0-2 | JJ Urquiza |
| 01/06/25 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana | JJ Urquiza | 3-1 HT 2-1 | CA Lugano |
| 03/09/24 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana | CA Lugano | 2-2 HT 1-0 | JJ Urquiza |
| 31/03/24 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana | JJ Urquiza | 2-1 HT 0-0 | CA Lugano |
Standings · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · Primera C 2026, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Centro Espanol | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 26 | 14 | 29 |
| 2 | Berazategui | 17 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 22 | 12 | 29 |
| 3 | Sacachispas | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 14 | 28 |
| 4 | Victoriano Arenas | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 16 | 11 | 25 |
| 5 | Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 18 | 16 | 25 |
| 6 | CA Lugano | 17 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 24 |
| 7 | Puerto Nuevo | 17 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 15 | 18 | 23 |
| 8 | Club Leandro N. Alem | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 22 | 29 | 23 |
| 9 | Club Mercedes | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 15 | 10 | 22 |
| 10 | Juventud Unida San Miguel | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 18 | 21 |
| 11 | Defensores de Cambaceres | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 18 | 20 |
| 12 | Argentino de Rosario | 17 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 17 | 22 | 15 |
| 13 | Deportivo Paraguayo | 17 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 24 | 15 |
| 14 | JJ Urquiza | 17 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 18 | 14 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | CA Lugano | JJ Urquiza |
|---|---|---|
| Sacachispas | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Club Mercedes | 1-0 W | 0-5 L |
| Argentino de Rosario | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Deportivo Paraguayo | 0-0 D | 0-0 D |
| Puerto Nuevo | 3-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Club Leandro N. Alem | 2-2 D | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 1 L | 0 W 3 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: CA Lugano (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
CA Lugano
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Sacachispas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 8 | W |
| 14/06 | Club Mercedes Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 06/06 | Argentino de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 30/05 | Deportivo Paraguayo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 23/05 | Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
1-1 | 2-3 | 2 | 11 | L |
| 16/05 | Leones de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
2-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 9 | D |
| 10/05 | Puerto Nuevo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 03/05 | Berazategui Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 9 | L |
| 25/04 | Club Leandro N. Alem Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 9 | D |
| 18/04 | Lujan Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | D |
JJ Urquiza
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Club Mercedes Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-4 | 0-5 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 13/06 | Deportivo Paraguayo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 06/06 | Puerto Nuevo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 31/05 | Club Leandro N. Alem Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 9 | L |
| 23/05 | Defensores de Cambaceres Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 16/05 | General Lamadrid Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 10 | L |
| 09/05 | Juventud Unida San Miguel Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 04/05 | Sacachispas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 25/04 | Argentino de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 9 | D |
| 18/04 | El Porvenir Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 8 | D |