Football · Argentina Nacional B · 04/07, 20:30
Defensores de Belgrano vs Deportivo Moron
Expected goals: 1.56 (Defensores de Belgrano 0.79 · Deportivo Moron 0.77). The model gives 33% home, 36% draw, 31% away. Under 1.5 goals (53%) and not both to score (56%). Most likely score: 0-0.
33%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Defensores de Belgrano 1436 · Deportivo Moron 1533
| Defensores de Belgrano | Draw | Deportivo Moron | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 38% | 30% |
| Market | 34% | 34% | 32% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.56 goals · Bet365 line 1.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals1.56Defensores de Belgrano 0.79 · Deportivo Moron 0.77
Over / Under 1.5Under 1.5 · 53%
BTTSNo · 56%
Most likely total1 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 83%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Deportivo Moron (rating 1436 vs 1533).
- H2H favours Deportivo Moron: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 11.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Defensores de Belgrano | Deportivo Moron | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.4 / 1.3 | 1.3 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.6 | 0.6 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 4.9 | 1.9 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0.4 | 6.5 / 0.7 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Defensores de Belgrano 1–3–2 Deportivo Moron
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/02/26 Argentina Nacional B | Deportivo Moron | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Defensores de Belgrano |
| 05/08/25 Argentina Nacional B | Defensores de Belgrano | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Deportivo Moron |
| 30/03/25 Argentina Nacional B | Deportivo Moron | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Defensores de Belgrano |
| 07/07/24 Argentina Nacional B | Defensores de Belgrano | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Deportivo Moron |
| 18/02/24 Argentina Nacional B | Deportivo Moron | 0-4 HT 0-2 | Defensores de Belgrano |
| 04/09/23 Argentina Nacional B | Deportivo Moron | 3-2 HT 1-2 | Defensores de Belgrano |
Standings · Argentina Nacional B · Primera Nacional 2026, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Moron | 18 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 26 | 15 | 34 |
| 2 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 18 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 13 | 34 |
| 3 | Los Andes | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 16 | 6 | 29 |
| 4 | Colon | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 21 | 14 | 29 |
| 5 | Deportivo Madryn | 18 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 24 | 18 | 28 |
| 6 | Club Ciudad de Bolivar | 18 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 27 |
| 7 | Almirante Brown | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 12 | 26 |
| 8 | CA Estudiantes Caseros | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 15 | 26 |
| 9 | Godoy Cruz | 18 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 18 | 14 | 25 |
| 10 | CA San Miguel | 18 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 16 | 19 | 24 |
| 11 | CA San Telmo | 18 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 14 | 16 | 20 |
| 12 | Defensores de Belgrano | 18 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 20 |
| 13 | Racing de Cordoba | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 21 | 20 |
| 14 | All Boys | 18 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 18 | 19 |
| 15 | Central Norte | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 16 | 18 |
| 16 | Acassuso | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 12 | 19 | 18 |
| 17 | Club Atletico Mitre | 18 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 18 | 23 | 17 |
| 18 | CA Chaco For Ever | 18 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 13 | 24 | 12 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Defensores de Belgrano | Deportivo Moron |
|---|---|---|
| All Boys | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Ferro Carril Oeste | 1-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Racing de Cordoba | 0-3 L | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 0 D 3 L | 1 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Deportivo Moron (1 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Defensores de Belgrano
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | All Boys Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 13/06 | Colon Argentina Nacional B |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 06/06 | CA San Miguel Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 30/05 | CA San Telmo Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 24/05 | Acassuso Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 18/05 | CA Chaco For Ever Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 12/05 | Ferro Carril Oeste Argentina Nacional B |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 02/05 | Central Norte Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 12 | 3 | D |
| 26/04 | Deportivo Madryn Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 20/04 | Racing de Cordoba Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-3 | 3 | 7 | L |
Deportivo Moron
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Ferro Carril Oeste Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 13/06 | Club Ciudad de Bolivar Argentina Nacional B |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 07/06 | Almirante Brown Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 31/05 | Club Atletico Mitre Argentina Nacional B |
2-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 24/05 | CA Estudiantes Caseros Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 19/05 | All Boys Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 09/05 | Los Andes Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 9 | D |
| 03/05 | Godoy Cruz Argentina Nacional B |
1-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 9 | D |
| 26/04 | Racing de Cordoba Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 10 | W |
| 23/04 | Ferrocarril Midland Argentina Cup |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 6 | L |