Football · Argentina Nacional B · 04/07, 20:00
CA Colegiales vs Gimnasia y Tiro
Expected goals: 1.79 (CA Colegiales 1.13 · Gimnasia y Tiro 0.67). The model gives 46% home, 33% draw, 21% away. Over 1.5 goals (53%) and not both to score (55%). Most likely score: 0-0.
46%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · CA Colegiales 1524 · Gimnasia y Tiro 1473
| CA Colegiales | Draw | Gimnasia y Tiro | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 34% | 20% |
| Market | 46% | 32% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.79 goals · Bet365 line 1.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals1.79CA Colegiales 1.13 · Gimnasia y Tiro 0.67
Over / Under 1.5Over 1.5 · 53%
BTTSNo · 55%
Most likely total1 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 83%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CA Colegiales (rating 1524 vs 1473).
- H2H favours Gimnasia y Tiro: 2-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| CA Colegiales | Gimnasia y Tiro | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 0.6 | 0.7 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.2 | 0.3 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 10/70/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5.2 | 2 / 2.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.4 | 4.7 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · CA Colegiales 1–0–2 Gimnasia y Tiro
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/02/26 Argentina Nacional B | Gimnasia y Tiro | 2-1 HT 2-0 | CA Colegiales |
| 20/09/25 Argentina Nacional B | CA Colegiales | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Gimnasia y Tiro |
| 18/05/25 Argentina Nacional B | Gimnasia y Tiro | 4-0 HT 1-0 | CA Colegiales |
Standings · Argentina Nacional B · Primera Nacional 2026, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gimnasia Jujuy | 18 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 30 | 20 | 36 |
| 2 | CA Atlanta | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 13 | 33 |
| 3 | Tristan Suarez | 18 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 16 | 10 | 30 |
| 4 | Atletico Rafaela | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 14 | 12 | 27 |
| 5 | Club Atletico Temperley | 18 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 18 | 17 | 27 |
| 6 | Ferrocarril Midland | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 14 | 26 |
| 7 | San Martin SJ | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 18 | 18 | 23 |
| 8 | CA Colegiales | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 17 | 17 | 23 |
| 9 | San Martin de Tucuman | 18 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 15 | 15 | 23 |
| 10 | Deportivo Maipu | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 22 | 20 | 22 |
| 11 | Nueva Chicago | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 15 | 16 | 22 |
| 12 | Almagro | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 19 | 22 |
| 13 | Quilmes | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 16 | 14 | 21 |
| 14 | Gimnasia y Tiro | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 16 | 19 | 21 |
| 15 | Patronato Parana | 18 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 15 | 21 |
| 16 | Chacarita Juniors | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 20 | 19 |
| 17 | CA Guemes | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 30 | 19 |
| 18 | Agropecuario | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 22 | 18 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | CA Colegiales | Gimnasia y Tiro |
|---|---|---|
| Quilmes | 3-1 W | 0-1 L |
| San Martin de Tucuman | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Atletico Rafaela | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Agropecuario | 0-0 D | 2-3 L |
| Tristan Suarez | 0-0 D | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 1 L | 1 W 0 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: CA Colegiales (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
CA Colegiales
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Quilmes Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 13/06 | San Martin de Tucuman Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 9 | W |
| 06/06 | Atletico Rafaela Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 30/05 | Agropecuario Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 23/05 | Tristan Suarez Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 16/05 | CA Guemes Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 4-1 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 10/05 | Chacarita Juniors Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 03/05 | San Martin SJ Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 26/04 | Nueva Chicago Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 19/04 | Club Atletico Temperley Argentina Nacional B |
1-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 4 | D |
Gimnasia y Tiro
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Deportivo Maipu Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 13/06 | Quilmes Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 0 | 6 | L |
| 06/06 | Ferrocarril Midland Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 31/05 | CA Atlanta Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 9 | D |
| 24/05 | Gimnasia Jujuy Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 4 | D |
| 17/05 | San Martin de Tucuman Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Atletico Rafaela Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 05/05 | Agropecuario Argentina Nacional B |
2-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 01/05 | Velez Sarsfield Argentina Cup |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 26/04 | Tristan Suarez Argentina Nacional B |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | L |